Florida State vs. Miami Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Tuesday night was arguably one of the worst betting and writing days I have had since joining Action Network.
Touting both UNC and Duke to cover with confidence, I sat embarrassed, appalled and scrolling endlessly on Twitter reading all of the well deserved hate I was receiving as both Miami (FL) and Florida State generated upsets.
Oh well. That was Tuesday, and we are now onto Saturday with a new case of beer to watch an awesome slate of games.
While I took a giant egg to the face, I remain optimistic. On the bright side, at least the ACC is showing signs of life with more competition other than the Blue Devils.
This will shape up to be a fun one as both Florida State and Miami (FL) are riding momentum off of some very big wins. Also, both just faced each other a week ago, a game that resulted in a one-point win by the Seminoles.
Will Florida State be able to repeat that victory? Or will Miami look to get even and continue to pad its ACC lead?
Let's find out.
Florida State Seminoles
In my write up for Duke at FSU, I had Duke comfortably covering the -5, as no Malik Osborne — or a hampered Osborne — would be a killer for Florida State. I didn't think the Seminoles would be able to overcome the loss from a scoring production perspective, especially with their horrific shooting.
Well, the shooting did not improve whatsoever, as the Seminoles shot 35.6% from the field and 28% from 3. However, they did manage to cause 15 Duke turnovers, which was just enough to win 79-78 in overtime.
They also shot 27.3% from 3 against North Florida in their last game, which is not ideal.
This has been a team led by its defense all season. The Seminoles once again showed that with nine steals and four blocks against the vaunted Duke offense. While Paolo Banchero still got his points, Florida State successfully limited everyone else.
The FSU offense is still a major cause of concern, as its shooting has been building brick houses game in and game out. Even with Miami's horrific defense, Florida State still only shot 30% from 3 and 42.6% from the field in the last game between the two.
Facilitating will be an added emphasis, per coach Hamilton, coming into this matchup. The Noles are hopeful that they can generate more open looks and start knocking down shots consistently.
Florida State will not be able to win these close games at a high rate with poor shooting — even if its on a 13-game overtime win streak.
While Matthew Cleveland has taken a leap forward as a viable third scoring option, his shooting still concerns me, as he hits 17.6% from 3 and 51.6% from the charity stripe.
If Florida State wants to repeat its performance from the Duke game, it will need to facilitate and knock down open looks. Miami's defense has improved a little, but it's still a very weak unit.
Miami Hurricanes
I have to give credit where credit is due. Miami made me look dumb, and it did it in a dominate fashion. I will now have to start taking the Canes seriously, especially when just three players outscored North Carolina as a whole in the 66-57 win.
This offense is legit and top-20 in AdjO, per KenPom. The Hurricanes shot a modest 46% from the floor, but an absurd 46.4% from 3 vs. UNC. North Carolina had no answers scrambling on defense, as Miami knocked down open look after open look.
While Florida State boasts a much better defense, Miami still shot at a high clip from 3. This is a lethal scoring unit, and one that is top-four in the ACC.
Miami is tough to guard, as it boasts a three-headed dragon scoring approach consisting of Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong and Charlie Moore. All three are comfortably scoring in double digits, with Kameron McGusty leading the Hurricanes with 18.1 points per game.
One glaring weakness that gives me pause is Miami's lack of rebounding. While it shoots at a high clip — which limits rebounding opportunities — it's still one of the worst in the ACC.
You wouldn't believe me if UNC/Miami was the first Miami game you watched this season, but the Canes' defense is still very bad. Although improved from when the unit ranked 200th in AdjD, it now sits at 164th after dismantling UNC by forcing 14 turnovers and 10 steals.
Florida State vs. Miami Betting Pick
Honestly, Miami deserved to beat Florida State in the last game, and I still don't understand how FSU squeaked that win out. Because of that result, Florida State has now beaten Miami eight times in a row — a streak I see ending this Saturday.
As a situational spot, Miami comes in well rested while Florida State just had a buffer in between its Duke game and this matchup. The Noles' rhythm may be off, as this is a road game.
While FSU's defense is far superior to UNC's, I believe Miami will continue its hot streak, as the versatility of its offense will be tough for FSU to guard, especially with Osborne still not at 100%.
While Miami's defense is still awful, Florida State's shooting has proven to be even worse.
If Miami can avoid turnovers that would lead Florida State back into this game, I will take The U to comfortably win at home. We need to start taking Miami seriously as an actual threat to win the ACC title.
