Arizona State vs. Creighton Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | -140 |
The red-hot Arizona State Sun Devils take on the slumping Creighton Bluejays on Monday night in Las Vegas.
Since their overtime loss against Texas Southern, the Sun Devils have won seven straight, including a pair of Pac-12 bouts.
Creighton, meanwhile, has dropped four in a row.
Can the Bluejays right the ship on a neutral floor, or will Arizona State continue its impressive start to the 2022-23 season?
Arizona State Sun Devils
I’ve written a lot about this Arizona State team, particularly how I thought it was undervalued in the Pac-12 futures market prior to the season.
Since then, a lot has changed.
Marcus Bagley has “stepped away” from the team, per head coach Bobby Hurley. The supposed star left a hole on the offensive end, and the Sun Devils have struggled to find their footing there.
They rank 191st in eFG% and much of those issues come from the 3-point line (284th). The Sun Devils are about league average in turnover rate and 2-point offense. They rely heavily on their athleticism and finishing ability around the rim.
Arizona State gets 21.8% of its points from the free-throw line (44th in the country) and is led by point guard Frankie Collins, who draws nearly six fouls per 40 minutes. He is 22nd in assist rate and is involved on 27.1% of possessions when on the floor.
DJ Horne is the leading scorer of this team, but it’s been the play of Devan Cambridge that's been a huge breath of fresh air for Hurley’s offense. The Auburn transfer is 69th in eFG% and is shooting 56.3% from the floor (9.3 PPG).
His brother, Desmond, has been a defensive stalwart, alongside Collins. The duo average a combined 3.5 steals per game.
Defense is where Arizona State makes its money. The Sun Devils are fourth in eFG% and rank inside the top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point defense. This is an extremely aggressive defense.
There are times where it leads to consistent free-throw line trips for the opponent, but it can also jump start a huge comeback, like we saw against Colorado. The Buffaloes turned the ball over 20 times as Arizona State erased a 15-point second-half deficit en route to a win.
The Sun Devils are an experienced squad, and 7-footer Warren Washington has been a huge help both on the glass and as a rim protector. The Nevada transfer has a career-best 8.1% block rate thus far.
It seems as though Arizona State has righted the ship since the aforementioned overtime loss to Texas Southern in its third game of the year. Since then, the Sun Devils have ripped off a 25-point beating over Michigan and a pair of Pac-12 wins against Colorado and Stanford.
Even without Bagley, this team is legit and should not be taken lightly.
Creighton Bluejays
If there’s one thing to take away from Creighton’s recent skid, it’s that the Blue Jays go as Ryan Kalkbrenner does.
Without its star 7-foot-1 center, Creighton lost to BYU on Saturday. When he failed to make an impact both on the glass and offensively against Nebraska, Creighton scored 53 points and was embarrassed at home.
These are the necessary growing pains Greg McDermott’s squad needs.
The hype couldn’t have been any higher for Creighton entering the season, and the Bluejays started with six straight wins, including back-to-back impressive performances against Texas Tech and Arkansas.
Since then, the team has been is disarray, losing four straight in games that weren’t all that close. Nebraska cruised and Arizona, Texas and BYU all held healthy leads before Creighton chipped away in the final minutes with the games all but over.
While Ryan Nembhard is growing as the true point guard of this offense, Creighton has gone stagnant at times.
Baylor Scheierman has also struggled to find his 3-point stroke. After shooting 47% from 3 last season, the South Dakota State transfer is shooting just 36.6% from beyond the arc this year.
This is a young team that is still improving. Creighton was 302nd last season in turnover rate and 305th in 3-point shooting. The Bluejays were built on defense and weren’t particularly ready for the spotlight.
The positive news is that this team — mostly because of Nembhard — has taken a step up in efficiency. The Jays are now 14th in turnover rate on offense and are about league average in 3-point rate. Nembhard ranks 54th in assist rate, too.
Nembhard and Kalkbrenner have established a solid two-man game that has left defenses struggling around the rim, especially those with a lack of size. Kalkbrenner ranks fourth in eFG% and is shooting 80.6% on 2-point field goals.
Defensively, the Bluejays don't force turnovers, but are disciplined and rarely foul. They box out and clean the glass well, but are about league average in both 2-point and 3-point defense.
It's notable that most teams attack the rim or are forced into mid-range jumpers against the Bluejays. Opponents score 64% of their points inside the arc.
For Creighton to have the success many imagined entering the season, it’ll come down to Scheierman, Arthur Kaluma and the other role players filling in and taking a step forward.
Kalkbrenner will likely play in Monday night’s game, but if not, his absence creates a huge interior weakness. Creighton was out-rebounded, 50-29, against BYU and created just 1.20 PPP — 20 points in the paint — in the loss.
Arizona State vs. Creighton Betting Pick
These two teams couldn't be trending in more opposite directions.
Kalkbrenner's status is in question (non-COVID illness), but I assume he'll return Monday night. His presence should give Creighton some life on the defensive end, and bouncing back before Big East play starts on Dec. 16 is vital.
However, it won't come easy against this Arizona State defense. Washington should be able to compete around the rim with Kalkbrenner, and Arizona State's aggressive defense could cause issues for this young Creighton backcourt.
This is a true coin flip game that I expect to come down to the wire. Arizona State has shown an ability to take a punch and still remain competitive, while Creighton's defense has had plenty of holes over the past couple of weeks.
Even with Arizona State's offensive struggles, I don't see Creighton doing much to stop or disrupt Collins atop the key and push transition. The Bluejays don't force turnovers and the Sun Devils will get plenty of strong looks.
The Bluejays need to stop the bleeding and picking up a win against Arizona State would be huge. I expect this game to come down to the final shot.
These are two talented rosters that should find themselves with NCAA tournament bids come March. In what should be a down-to-the-wire bout, I would wait until Kalkbrenner's status is confirmed.
If he's pronounced in, I would take Arizona State at +3 or better. If he is out, I would take the Sun Devils down to a PK.
Pick: Arizona State +3 or Better if Kalkbrenner is IN | Pick or Better if OUT |
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