Dayton vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -118 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -104 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
Non-conference games prior to the holiday season make college basketball beautiful. Take this Dayton–Virginia Tech matchup, for example.
For fans of both teams, this game is a real measuring stick to see where their program sits before the rigors of conference play. For the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, a game like this could speak volumes when considering the inclusion or seeding of either of these teams.
And, of course, it's a great opportunity for bettors.
Early-season injuries and offensive woes have kept Dayton from reaching its potential.
Virginia Tech is coming off of a program-statement level win over North Carolina.
Where's the value in the betting market with the Hokies welcoming the Flyers to Blacksburg?
Dayton Flyers
This is a Dayton team that entered the season with massive expectations, earning a spot in the preseason AP Poll. Per KenPom's metrics, the Flyers rank in the top-10 nationally in production retained year-over-year from last season, when Dayton finished 24-11 with a berth in the NIT.
Those expectations, however, have taken a major hit early in the season.
The Flyers have played four top-100 teams and lost all four of those games. A trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis over Thanksgiving Week included multiple heartbreaking losses, including a one-point loss to Wisconsin and an overtime loss to BYU.
Further breaking the hearts of Dayton fans on that trip, two key pieces suffered injuries against BYU. Starting guards Kobe Elvis and Malachi Smith have both been out of the lineup since leaving that game.
Head coach Anthony Grant described both as "out for the foreseeable future," leaving the Flyers short-handed for the time being.
That is a scary reality for a team that has been struggling to score the basketball. Dayton managed just 42 points (0.67 points per possession) against Wisconsin.
The Flyers are playing at a slow pace, but are not finding the shots you'd expect for a team with that much patience. Hitting under 28% from long range certainly hasn't helped, either.
Grant will look to leading scorer DaRon Holmes II to pick up the slack as best he can, yet his game as a big man in the middle will suffer without Smith and Elvis creating off the dribble.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Mike Young is building something in Blacksburg. He has one of those rosters that makes sense on paper, but even more sense in motion on the hardwood.
Hunter Cattoor is one of the best shooters in college basketball. Grant Basile scored 18 points per game at Wright State last season. And Justyn Mutts is a dog on the glass and at the rim.
The real revelation has been Sean Pedulla. The baby-faced sophomore scored 5.4 points per game in 12.9 minutes last season. He's exploded onto the scene this year, dropping 16.8 points per game and hitting double figures in every outing so far.
He's done all of that while shooting below his ability. Pedulla has made just four of his last 21 attempts from deep, but he's a career 41% outside shooter.
When he gets hot, he can go nuclear. His 6-for-7 shooting night from long range at Florida State last season could just be the tip of the iceberg.
If you're uncertain about these Hokies, ask preseason top-ranked North Carolina. The Heels came to Blacksburg and got man-handled, trailing by as many as 18 points in the second half.
So far this season, Virginia Tech has just one loss, a two-point defeat "on the road" at Charleston, in a game where the Hokies shot 22% from long range and led by eight late before letting it slip away.
Virginia Tech has one of the most under-appreciated coaches in college basketball with a team that can carve up any defense.
Invest now while you still can.
Dayton vs. Virginia Tech Betting Pick
You could certainly talk yourself into Virginia Tech having a letdown performance after its big win over North Carolina.
If this game were scheduled to be played in Dayton or at a neutral site, I might lean that way. If Smith and Elvis were in uniform, I'd definitely give that a second thought.
At home, at the Cassell Coliseum, I trust Young to have his team ready to turn around and stay hot.
In the end, I just don't see a way for the hampered Flyers to score with Virginia Tech. Even if Dayton slows the pace to glacial speeds and tries to muck up the game, Virginia Tech is ready for it.
Penn State tried to do so — playing just 64 possessions against Tech — but the Hokies won that game, despite shooting 3-of-19 from outside.
I like Virginia Tech to win and cover as long as the line doesn't balloon much past the opening number.
Pick: Virginia Tech -7 (Play to -8) |
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