Seattle vs. Oregon State Odds
| Seattle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 136.5 -106o / -114u | -128 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 136.5 -106o / -114u | +106 |
Fresh off of an overtime win against North Dakota, the Seattle Redhawks look to move to 8-1 on the season. Thursday's late-night matchup in Corvallis will also be their first time this year playing back-to-back road games.
So, do they have what it takes to come out on top against the Beavers?
For what it's worth, that hasn't taken much so far this season. Oregon State moved to 1-6 in its last seven games following its loss to Texas A&M on Sunday.
The hope given to Beaver fans early in the year — after a 3-0 start that included one of the biggest comeback wins in recent history — has all but faded away.
However, Oregon State's record could be misleading. The Beavers have posted losses against Duke, Florida, USC and Texas A&M. Their losses to the Blue Devils and Trojans came by just four points combined. Oregon State is also 3-1 at home so far.
Are the Beavers better than we're giving them credit for?
Seattle Redhawks
Seattle had 10 days off before its game vs. North Dakota. And while the majority of the Redhawks seemed a little groggy coming into the game against an inferior opponent, Cameron Tyson wasn't going to get caught sleeping.
Tyson, who has led the Redhawks in scoring overall this season, proved once again why he's the best scorer in the WAC, posting 24 points while tacking on four rebounds and a steal.
When it comes to the team's offense as a whole, however, Seattle has been been painfully average. Posting an effective field goal percentage of just 50.3%, the Redhawks rely heavily on the amount of shots they can get up, ranking 21st in field goal attempts and seventh in 3-point attempts.
That's something they might not be able to rely on against an Oregon State team that ranks 338th in Adjusted Tempo.
Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon State Beavers are a bad basketball team. I imagine the Beavers will be sending some impressive stocking stuffers to both Cal and Louisville for taking the focus off of them when it comes to just how bad a Power Five team can be.
However, I will give Oregon State credit — it refuses to go down alone.
The Beavers may be bad, but they've made some of the best teams in the country look bad right alongside them. Oregon State held Duke to just 54 points and nearly pulled off the upset against USC, falling just short in a 63-62 loss.
So, how are they doing it? Relentless, in-your-face, annoying defense all over the floor, but specifically around the basket.
The Beavers' ability to control the pace and bring games to an absolute stand still is enough to aggravate teams, but their defensive efforts make it even worse.
Oregon State has held opponents to just 67.8 points per game on the season. And while the Beavers aren't great when it comes to getting steals or even rebounding, their height has helped them limit offensive rebounds and cause havoc in the paint.
The Beavers rank in the 92nd percentile, limiting teams to a field goal percentage of just 31.7% in the paint.
While that's been good enough to keep the Beavers inside the spread against the likes of Duke and USC, will it be enough to come away with the win over Seattle?
Seattle vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
The Beavers may be a force around the basket defensively, but the Redhawks have been just as good, if not better.
Seattle is coming down with the ball on 33.2% of its opportunities to grab an offensive rebound, posting 10+ in each of its last two games.
More importantly, the Redhawks have made those rebounds count, averaging 11.5 second-chance points per game while hitting 38.9% of their put-back attempts.
And they aren't just doing it at the offensive end. Seattle is also averaging 24.5 defensive rebounds per game while ranking in the 97th percentile in defensive rebound percentage. In terms of turnovers, the Redhawks once again rank among the best, giving the ball up just 12 times per contest.
The biggest deciding factor in this game for me, though, is Seattle's ability to get to the line and how undervalued it is from beyond the arc.
The Redhawks have been one of the best team in the country when it comes to drawing fouls, ranking 57th in the nation. That couldn't be worse news for a Beavers team that already posts 18 fouls per game on average.
Beyond the arc, Tyson ranks 67th in the nation, hitting 40.9% from deep. His counterpart, Riley Grigsby, went 0-of-6 from deep vs. North Dakota, but in the four games prior, Grigsby hit 40% from 3. I expect that to be more of the trend moving forward.
Back the Redhawks as high as as a 2.5-point favorite over the Beavers.
Pick: Seattle -2.5 or Better |
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