Iowa vs. Rutgers Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
Iowa comes into the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on the heels of one of the best offensive performances in college basketball this season — a 112-point performance against Northwestern on Thursday.
Next, it'll try to ride that momentum and exact some revenge against Rutgers.
The winner of this game will play the winner of the first quarterfinal game on Friday between Indiana and Illinois.
When Iowa Has the Ball
The Hawkeyes put up a whopping 112 points on Thursday against Northwestern and broke all sorts of team records for the Big Ten Tournament.
#B1Gtourney single-game records set by @IowaHoops today:
• Most FGs (43)
• Most 3s (19)
• Most points (112)
• Largest margin of victory (36) pic.twitter.com/OWfJXL00oN— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 10, 2022
The thing is that type of offensive performance is not that shocking, considering how good the Iowa offense has been all season long. The Hawkeyes are now up to third in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom and ninth on ShotQuality.
Iowa offensively can really beat teams in a multitude of ways. Its lineup features one of the country's best scorers in Keegan Murray, who is a massive matchup problem. It also has a ton of shooters around him, and it has the size and depth to match up with anyone in the country.
The Hawkeyes will have a tremendous matchup against Rutgers' defense for a couple of reasons.
First, Iowa ranks first in the Big Ten in points per possession in isolation sets, while Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten defensively in that same category, per ShotQuality.
Secondly, Iowa is torching opposing teams at the rim, shooting 60% while also hitting over 37% from behind the arc. Rutgers ranks 10th in the Big Ten in Rim & 3 Rate Allowed, and it also ranks 170th in Open-3 Rate.
Finally, Iowa has the third-lowest turnover percentage in the country, while Rutgers is 193rd in turnover percentage on defense, per KenPom.
When Rutgers Has the Ball
For the Scarlet Knights to win this game, they're going to have to do what they did in the first meeting: slow down the pace. There were only 68 possessions in the first meeting in Piscataway, which is below Iowa's season average.
Rutgers runs a ton of pick-and-roll, along with a lot of off-ball screens, which is where it's most successful — especially when it's Ron Harper Jr. or Geo Baker coming off the screen.
That will be big against Iowa, which is the worst team in the Big Ten in defending off-screens.
Rutgers will also have a big advantage on the offensive glass, as Iowa has the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten.
Rutgers doesn't take a high number of 3-pointers, but it hits them at a high rate in conference play at 37.6%, which could be vital against an Iowa defense that sits 292nd nationally in Open-3 Rate Allowed, per ShotQuality.
Betting Pick
The first meeting between these two teams was an extremely low-scoring affair with Rutgers walking away with a 48-46 victory at the RAC.
However, both offenses should have performed much better, per ShotQuality.
The key here for Iowa is getting out to an early lead and forcing Rutgers to play at its tempo. If the Hawkeyes can do that, then there will be points galore in the matchup.
So, I like the value on over 144.5 points and would play it up to 146.
Pick: Over 144.5 (Play to 146)
