Editor's Note: Kansas' Ochai Agbaji will not play tonight at Iowa State because of “COVID-19 health and safety protocols."
Kansas vs. Iowa State Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | -192 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | +158 |
Kansas had been riding its luck big time in conference play, but after losing by 18 at home to Kentucky, the Jayhawks will be happy to get back to Big 12 play.
Kansas will look to get right with a tricky road matchup at Iowa State Tuesday night.
Kentucky ran Kansas out of Phog Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, something most college basketball fans and Jayhawks fans aren't used to seeing. The Wildcats led by 20 at halftime, and KU was never remotely in the game on its home floor.
Iowa State will be looking for revenge — and some home Hilton magic — after it lost on the final possession at Kansas earlier this year, and dropped its last home game in conference by double digits to TCU.
The Cyclones have won two straight since then, but can they score enough in the half-court to stick with Kansas?
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas has been less than impressive since conference play began. The Jayhawks may be 6-1 in the league, but they were blown out in Lubbock by the Red Raiders and snuck out four wins by a combined 10 points in their other victories.
That includes a one-point home win against the Cyclones on Jan. 11 after KU led by nine and melted away a late lead. The Jayhawks needed a late bucket to win the game by one point.
You'd expect to see a response from the Jayhawks in this game, and this projects as a pretty favorable matchup for Kansas, generally.
Iowa State's offense has major turnover issues (275th), and Kansas has one of the best transition offenses in the entire country. The Jayhawks will be able to turn over ISU and then run, as KU is 14th in transition ShotQuality.
Iowa State is heavily reliant on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition for offense. The team often gets bogged down in the half-court and doesn't really know how to exploit set defenses that force it to shoot.
Kansas does have some occasional turnover issues, but is generally above-average with the ball.
Where KU can exploit the aggressive Iowa State defense is on the glass, though, where Iowa State overcommits for steals and can be very vulnerable.
The Jayhawks will get a ton of looks in transition and a ton of second chance points, which is a good way to cope with a difficult road environment in Ames.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is a physical group that plays really hard for first-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger. The Cyclones make opponents grind for 40 minutes to beat them.
ISU badly lacks offensive shooting talent and it relies a ton on its defense to create offense for itself.
But this perimeter defense has also been very fortunate this season to not be punished for playing quite aggressively and giving up some open looks, especially in league play.
For the year, opponents are shooting just 27.2% against the Cyclones from beyond the arc, and just 30% in league play.
Iowa State doesn't have much length at all to bother shooters and plays very aggressively, so you'd expect some open looks from that. ShotQuality says that the Cyclones do concede open looks, just no one has made them.
That's a dangerous game to play against the Jayhawks, who can get hot from deep and light up anyone. Kansas hit just 6-of-20 from 3 in the first meeting and made very little against Kentucky on Saturday, so this could be a good bounce-back shooting spot for the Jayhawks.
Kansas vs. Iowa State Betting Pick
You're getting a bit of a discount on the Jayhawks here following an embarrassing blowout loss to Kentucky on Saturday, and Iowa State's dominant win against Missouri at home.
Kansas only averages about 12 turnovers per game, so while the Cyclones did manage 16 in the first meeting in Lawrence, it's easy to forget that KU was comfortably in control of that game before it crumbled late.
Betting against Hilton magic is a difficult proposition, especially in the game of the year. This would've been an excellent sandwich spot had the Jayhawks won that game on Saturday, as they're facing Baylor later this week.
But the line is a bit short to me. It's time to sell high on the Cyclones, and you should get a motivated Kansas on the road that will look to run over Iowa State in transition.
While both teams may turn it over, the Kansas offense is much better to exploit those giveaways against a regression-bound Iowa State perimeter defense.
