Louisville vs. Florida State Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 142 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 142 -110o / -110u | -210 |
It's no secret the ACC is down this year. In what is normally one of the most dominant conferences every year in basketball, the ACC is now staring down the reality of potentially being a one-bid league come March.
Do I actually think only one team will make it out of the ACC? No. But every passing day is shaking my belief, as they keep cannibalizing each other.
Two of the teams who used to sniff the top of the ACC have both taken a major step back in Louisville and Florida State.
With conference play in full swing, it will be up to everyone not named Duke to start building their case for a chance in March. With wins being more of a premium than ever for those who got off to a slow start, expect this to be a good one as both look to get back on track.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville used to be a picture-perfect model of consistency — a tough defense and an offense that would facilitate until it got the best possible shot.
Now, I don't even recognize the Cardinals.
While the defense is still top notch — ranked 34th in AdjD, per KenPom — the offense has fallen off a cliff.
Ranked 116th in AdjO, the Cardinals have been hard pressed to find scoring. With only two players in double-digit scoring, they have been prone to anemic offensive sets.
A big reason for the step back in offensive production is the lack of quality shooting. Louisville currently ranks near dead last in the ACC in field goal percentage, shooting 42.4%. They are also second to last in 3-point percentage, shooting 31.4%.
While the offense has been pedestrian, the shining light has been the Cardinals' defense.
Louisville's turnover rate is low, and it specializes in forcing teams to take bad shots and limits second-chance opportunities by crashing the boards. The Cardinals currently rank second in the ACC in total rebounds per game and second in defensive rebounds, as well.
Florida State Seminoles
The Florida State identity has remained the same, but the output has been drastically different. The Seminoles are still lengthy, pesky, clogging lanes and scoring down low, but they are off to a mediocre start to the season, sitting at 7-5 and ninth in the ACC.
They have mirrored Louisville so far this season, having a great defense and a less-than-ideal offense by shooting themselves out of games.
Ranked 96th in AdjO, Florida State also has only two players in double-digits scoring, with 11 players playing meaningful minutes. The Seminoles are led by the duo of Caleb Mills, who averages 12.1 points, and Malik Osborne, who averages 11.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per night.
The offense has the potential to get back into form, as the 'Noles facilitate the ball well at an above-average clip in the ACC. The shots have just not fallen yet.
FSU is below average in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and middle of the pact in scoring.
While the shots have struggled to hit at a good clip, the Seminoles better turn that around fast, as they will not get many second chances against Louisville.
This can potentially spell doom for an upset if FSU once again goes cold. Florida State is currently near the bottom of the ACC in defensive rebounds per game.
Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Pick
This is going to be ugly.
With both offenses mightily struggling so far, it will be interesting to see if either starts to find its groove. While I lean towards FSU at home, I just can't trust it to cover.
With that said, I will be taking the under.
I don't believe either offense will be magically fixed over night, especially with how many offensive issues Louisville has. I'll gladly pay money to be wrong, as this conference needs some help come March.
Another boost to the under is that while Louisville is horrific at scoring, it makes up for it in rebounding. Louisville will drastically limit the second-chance points for Florida State, as the Seminoles are near bottom of the league in rebounding.
With limited second-chance opportunities and the potential of a brick house being built on both sides of the court, I'll confidently take the under.
