Michigan vs. Purdue Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -460 |
Purdue looks to exact revenge on Michigan, which took down the Boilermakers by 17 points at Mackey Arena last season.
The Wolverines are struggling to keep their name in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament and are in desperate need of a quality win.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is on the outside looking in tourney-wise. It needs a huge win. A victory over a top-10 team at one of the best home venues in college basketball would qualify.
The Wolverines’ offense boils down to a two-prong attack. Prong 1: Feed the ball to All-American center Hunter Dickinson. Prong 2: Attack off the bounce via the pick-and-roll.
Prong 1 will be difficult to find scoring through. Purdue is an excellent defensive team in post-up situations, 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey in particular.
Look no further than last season to see how Dickinson struggled against the towering Boilermaker frontcourt. Dickinson finished with eight points, three rebounds, four fouls, and six turnovers. If Purdue can shut down Dickinson, Michigan will have a very difficult time scoring.
Prong 2 needs to be the answer. Purdue is not a good ball screen defensive team — Edey and Williams can be attacked in space, and outside of Jaden Ivey, the backcourt athleticism is somewhat lacking. Point guard DeVante' Jones has been a menace coming off ball screens this season and should find plenty of opportunities against the soft Boiler defense.
Michigan won’t find many second chances via the offensive glass against the gigantic Purdue frontline, so shot-making becomes that much more crucial.
Unfortunately for the Maize and Blue, outside shooting has been a major weakness all season for the Wolverines. Michigan leads the conference in percentage of points scored inside the arc but ranks dead last in percentage of points scored from downtown.
Asking a poor shooting team to knock down shots in a hostile environment is tough.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue sits one game back of first in the Big Ten race and is eager to snatch up a win against the team that embarrassed it last season.
The Boilers boast the league’s top offense in conference play, but the method through which they’re predominantly scoring points might come as a surprise. For as dominant as Purdue’s big men are, its guards are just as important to the offensive attack.
Purdue leads the Big Ten in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc, per KenPom. The Boiler’s 40.6% conference 3P% is also tops in the league.
More expectedly, Purdue also has the second-highest post-up usage in the country, per Synergy. Feeding Edey or Williams on the block usually results in a bucket inside or a kick-out to an open shooter.
Michigan has been brutalized inside this season. Dickinson has been awful guarding post-ups, allowing 1.032 PPP, good for the 20th percentile in the country, per Synergy. Michigan, as a team, ranks 13th in the Big Ten in 2P FG% allowed (KenPom) and 335th in FG% allowed at the rim (Hoop-Math).
Purdue should score at will through whichever avenue Michigan chooses to give. Send a double to the post? OK, we'll shoot 3s. Guard the post one-on-one? OK, we'll get your best player in foul trouble and score.
Foul trouble is a concern for Michigan. Last season, Dickinson picked up four fouls, and given Michigan fouls at one of the highest rates in the conference and Purdue leads the Big Ten in offensive FT rate, he is bound to get in foul trouble again.
The one area where Michigan can put up resistance on this end is the glass. Purdue is the best offensive rebounding team by rate in the league, but Michigan is the best defensive rebounding squad.
The Wolverines have athleticism and strength in addition to Dickinson to combat the Boilers on the boards.
Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Michigan is 2-5 against the spread on the road, while Purdue sits at 6-6 ATS at Mackey. The latter is a surprising statistic but shouldn’t be used much in determining which team to side with on Saturday.
The matchup overwhelmingly favors Purdue in this game.
Michigan can maybe rack up some easy buckets off of ball screens, but its inability to shoot and overreliance on Dickinson will be its downfall.
Add in the fact every single Boilermaker of significance was present during the Wolverines’ dismantling of them in January 2021, and you have yourself a strong betting angle on the Boilers.
