Missouri State vs. Saint Mary's Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 125.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 125.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
Saint Mary's will look to keep its seven-game home winning streak alive when it welcomes Missouri State on Wednesday night.
The Bears lost two in a row before winning four straight games, the latest of which saw them put up triple-digit points for the first time this season against Central Arkansas. The Bears are thriving on both ends of the court during this winning streak.
The Gaels, meanwhile, scored a season-low 53 points in a 63-53 loss to San Diego State as a three-point favorite their last time out, failing to cover for the second time in their last three games. Saint Mary's has still been profitable against the spread (ATS) this season, though, at 7-5.
Saint Mary’s shot only 36.5% from the floor and 25.0% from beyond the arc against the Aztecs. The defense has carried it to many wins this season, but they'll have to score more than 53 points if they want to beat, or cover, against the 44th-ranked offense in the country.
Missouri State Bears
The Bears shot 53.4% from the floor against Central Arkansas and shot 16-of-32 from 3-point land. They even held Central Arkansas to 43.9% shooting.
Isiaih Mosley led Missouri State with 28 points on 9-of-18 shooting, including going 6-of-10 from beyond the arc. He was one of four Bears to score double-digit points, which held them cover as a 24.5-point favorite. Like the Gaels, Missouri State is also 7-5 ATS this season.
The Bears have the 21st-ranked offense in the country, averaging 80.2 points per game. They've also been one of the best from beyond the arc, entering this game ranked 24th by shooting 38.6% from deep. From the free throw line, Missouri State rarely misses, shooting 80.4% from the charity stripe, which is good for 10th in the country.
Defensively, the Bears rank 174th by allowing opponents to score an average of 67.7 points per game. Missouri State ranks right around there in pace, at 165th with 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
Saint Mary's Gaels
Last time out against San Diego State, senior guard Tommy Kuhse led the Gaels with 13 points, while Matthias Tass had 12 with three blocks and four rebounds.
Saint Mary's should be hungry to bounce back after an embarrassing loss. But I think that will be easier said than done against Missouri State, though, since the Gaels have struggled against teams that shoot well from 3-point range and move with a decent pace (see matchups against Wisconsin and Colorado State).
St. Mary’s offense ranks 240th in the NCAA, averaging just 66.2 points per game. Defensively, the Gaels have thrived, ranking 19th in the country by allowing just 59.6 points this season. They've limited opponents to just a 47% effective field goal percentage, while opposing teams have also shot just 45.1% from inside the arc against them.
However, I don't think Saint Mary's will match up well against Missouri State. The Gaels rank 250th at defending the 3-point ball, allowing a 34.7% mark from deep. Saint Marys also averages 16.2 fouls per game, and allowing one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country to get to the line on a regular basis won't bode well.
The Missouri State defense is also decent in its own right and should be able to find success against a struggling Saint Mary's offense that has struggled to score from everywhere on the floor.
Missouri State vs. Saint Mary's Betting Pick
Saint Mary's defense is impressive, but I don't think it will be enough to cover a spread that is higher than I think it should be.
Missouri State should find success on offense in the areas the Gales struggle defending most. Because of that, I think they have a chance to not only cover but potentially even hand the Gaels their first home loss of the season. Saint Mary's is just 5-3 ATS on their home court but undefeated straight-up.
I expect a close game regardless of which side wins, and for that reason I'll be backing Missouri State at +5 or better.
