Updated UNC vs. Clemson Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -106 | 146 -106o / -114u | -120 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -114 | 146 -106o / -114u | +100 |
Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final game in Chapel Hill was a memorable one, but not for the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Tar Heel faithful were the only ones ready for the matchup against Duke, as the team came out flat and never recovered. It ultimately led to a 20-point rout, which is becoming a bit of a trend for North Carolina.
Five of the seven losses for the Tar Heels have come by 17 or more points.
Now, they welcome in a Clemson squad that has won just two of its last seven games. The Tigers' defense hasn’t matched the intensity that we’ve seen from it in recent years, but the offense has been electric, specifically from outside.
Both defenses have struggled to guard the perimeter this season. That could be a major factor in this one, with each offense lighting it up from downtown all year.
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is 16-7 on the season and currently owns a 54% chance to receive an NCAA Tournament bid.
The big issue is that when the Tar Heels lose, they tend to get blown out.
- Lost by 17 to Tennessee (89-72)
- Lost by 29 to Kentucky (98-69)
- Lost by 28 to Miami (85-57)
- Lost by 22 to Wake Forest (98-76)
- Lost by 20 to Duke (87-67)
The common denominator in all those losses is the lack of defense. UNC is allowing opponents to score an average of 90 points in its seven losses.
The Heels are 97th in defensive efficiency this season and 246th in scoring defense, allowing 73 points per game. Opponents have hit 34% of their outside shot attempts (212th) and 49% of their 2-point attempts (155th).
Offensively, the group is electric converting on 39% of its 3-point attempts, which is second-best in the ACC. The Heels aren’t as efficient scoring inside the perimeter, but grab 30% of their misses to extend possessions.
Clemson Tigers
It’s been a rough stretch for the Tigers this season, who are 12-10 on the year and 4-7 in ACC play. The Tigers have lacked consistency, highlighted by conference losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech.
The unit has shifted its playing style since last season, transitioning to a more offensive-minded system rather than a defense-first system.
After owning a top-20 defensive efficiency rating over the last two seasons, the Tigers now rank 94th nationally. The group has struggled to guard the perimeter, allowing opponents to hit 34% from deep. The Tigers aren’t much better guarding inside the arc, as they rank 109th in defending 2-point field goals.
Clemson has hit 38% of its 3-point field goals this season, which ranks third in the conference and 15th nationally. Al-Amir Dawes has hit 39% of his 127 attempts, and has been the biggest weapon from outside.
PJ Hall is the leader for the Clemson program and is putting up 15 points to go along with six rebounds a contest. He’s scored in double figures in every game this season — besides the season opener against Presbyterian.
North Carolina vs. Clemson Betting Pick
North Carolina was routed by Duke, not because of its offense, but because of its lack of defense. The Tar Heels allowed the Blue Devils to hit 58% from the field and 47% of their 19 3-pointers.
That’s becoming a trend, as UNC has let its opponents hit 45% or better from the field in seven of its last 10 games.
Both Clemson and UNC rank among the top three in the conference and top-15 nationally in 3-point percentage.
Clemson allows 42% of its opponents' shots to come from the perimeter and ranks 172nd in defending such shot attempts.
UNC follows a similar pattern, allowing 38% of shot attempts to come from deep and its opponents to convert on 34% (212th).
Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek has been terrific for the Tar Heals as of late. He’s averaged 21 points and five 3-pointers over the last three games.
Though I believe UNC will bounce back, Clemson is desperate for a victory. I’m backing the over in a game that should see plenty of open looks from downtown and should have a quick tempo.
