Ohio State vs Wisconsin Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
The Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes get to partake in the "Davey Jones’ Locker" portion of the Big Ten Tournament.
Falling within the 11-14 seed in the Big Ten Tournament does not bode well for any team, especially Wisconsin, which finds itself on the bubble presently.
This game will likely come down to the wire because of both teams’ paces. Given this, the under should be in play more than a side.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes were probably one of the more underwhelming power conference teams out there this season. They finished the regular season ranking 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 125th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
OSU's defense is usually the issue, but its offense isn't necessarily as efficient as KenPom says.
The Bucks rank sixth in midrange and post-up frequency, per ShotQuality. They're shooting a touch over 50%, so this doesn't bode well for their 35.8% 3-point percentage. They shoot 3s just 31.3% of the time, ranking 318th in the country. Even though they don't miss many shots, they're not taking the right ones.
The Buckeyes do take care of the ball, though, with a turnover rate of 16.3%, but they don't turn over opponents (16.1%). This game should be played in the half-court because of the lack of turnovers and how both teams like to wait for their shots.
OSU also ranks 231st in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. It uses up 18.2 seconds per possession offensively and 17.9 seconds per possession defensively.
However, even if this game is played in the half-court, they're still not taking the right shots. The Buckeyes rank 207th, in half-court points per possession (PPP), per ShotQuality, and they rank 347th in rim frequency.
That won't cut it in a slow-paced game.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is a great defensive team, which has been a bright spot for the Badgers this season.
They rank 26th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, while limiting opponents to 32% shooting from deep and a 25.5% offensive rebounding clip. This will come into play because OSU ranks 62nd in offensive rebounding rate and 164th defensively. Luckily for the under, Wisconsin is 342nd in offensive rebounding rate, so second chances won't come often in this matchup.
The Badgers also don't turn over the ball. They're actually even better than the Buckeyes in that area with a 13.4% turnover rate to rank fourth nationally.
That said, they shoot under 46% from the 2-point range and 35.5% from 3-point distance. They're a tad more reliable with shot selection, posting a 40.7% 3-point attempt clip. OSU is also holding opponents in check from distance, though, keeping them at bay at a 32.7% rate.
Now, Wisconsin ranks 28th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to BartTorvik. The only problem is it ranks 153rd with an 18.4% turnover rate on defense. Sure, it turned over OSU 16 times in the only matchup between these two this season, but the Buckeyes should be in better shape this time.
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Photo via CBB Analytics
OSU tends to guard the perimeter relatively well, which seems to be the only way Wisconsin scored points. The Buckeyes rank 53rd in Open-3 Rate, so expect them to prevent the Badgers' perimeter attack.
Ohio State vs Wisconsin Betting Pick
Since this game is on a neutral court for the Big Ten Tournament, these teams will take a minute to get used to each other. Each has the defensive antidote for the other, and they both play at a slow pace.
Neither offense is that efficient, so it will take plenty to overcome this total. Take the under from 131, and play it to 129.
