Oklahoma State vs. TCU Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 130 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 130 -110o / -110u | -130 |
TCU's excellent week that began with a thrashing of LSU at home and continued with a road victory at Oklahoma ended on a sour note on Saturday. The Horned Frogs lost at home by double digits to Kansas State.
Jamie Dixon's bunch will look to bounce back Tuesday night at home. This time the Horned Frogs host postseason ineligible Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys beat in-state rival Oklahoma by nine points just three days ago. This is a natural let-down spot for the Cowboys on the road against a desperate team playing for its NCAA Tournament spot.
TCU has some matchup advantages that it can exploit against the Cowboys, as well. It has an above-average home court advantage and is the better team on a neutral court. The major question mark is whether or not TCU star Mike Miles will be able to go or not in this game.
Miles missed the last game with a re-injured wrist, but the Horned Frogs need him back and can't risk dropping a second straight outing.
Keep an eye on his status, but let's break down the rest of the matchup.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys play some of the best defense in the entire country, ranking 10th in adjusted ShotQuality defense and 16th in KenPom defensive efficiency.
They play a hyper-aggressive defensive style that prioritizes turnovers and being able to get out in transition.
When forced to play in the half-court, the Cowboys are one of the worst offenses in all of Division I basketball. Oklahoma State ranks 352nd out of 358 in half-court ShotQuality on offense, and doesn't do anything well.
The Cowboys are one of the worst jump shooting teams in the country, making just 30.2% of their 3-point attempts.
The offense has major turnover issues too, which contributes to the shooting woes. Like TCU, the Cowboys are outside the top 300 in turnover rate offensively.
When these two teams first met in Stillwater, the Cowboys had much more success turning over TCU than vice versa. Despite 22 turnovers, TCU was up nine with three minutes to play before melting the game away.
Oklahoma State stole that victory at home despite one of its best games with turnovers all year (11).
That's not really sustainable, nor is Miles shooting 0-for-11 from 2-point range. Either he won't play for TCU, or he'll play better than his worst game of the entire season.
You also have to wonder if the Cowboys will be flat. Saturday was a huge win for the program, and given that it has no postseason games to look forward to or a resume to build, its prone to coming out flat.
Maybe not against Kansas, Baylor or Oklahoma, but a road trip to TCU is certainly a possible flat spot.
TCU Horned Frogs
While TCU had major turnover issues in the first meeting with Oklahoma State, it absolutely dominated the glass.
I'd expect more of the same in this game.
The Cowboys are an aggressive defense and sacrifice solidity on the defensive glass because of that.
TCU is the best offensive rebounding team in the entire country, and Oklahoma State ranks outside the top 300 in defending the glass. The Horned Frogs pulled in 17 offensive rebounds in the first meeting and totally dominated the second chance points.
The last aggressive defense that the Horned Frogs faced was LSU last week, and they had just 13 total turnovers in that game, a major improvement over some games earlier in the year.
The metrics surrounding the team in half-court offense are almost as bad as Oklahoma State, as it ranks 304th in half-court ShotQuality. TCU gets to the rim at the seventh-highest rate in the nation, though, and won't need to make many perimeter shots in this game to get separation.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU Betting Pick
In a game with two challenged offenses, TCU's ability to get extra shots on second chance points and dominate the glass is a huge difference.
I don't expect Oklahoma State to recreate such a huge margin in the turnover department — like the Cowboys did in the first meeting.
I do expect the Horned Frogs to shoot poorly — as most teams do against an elite Pokes defense — but they'll get enough shots through volume to overcome that.
I also expect TCU to have a max effort game at home following a puzzling loss to Kansas State on Saturday. If Miles plays, even better, but even without him, I'm happy to back TCU at -3 or better to win against a potentially flat Oklahoma State.
Pick: TCU -3 or better
