Oklahoma State vs. Texas Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 125.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 126 -110o / -110u | -411 |
Texas has been one of the hottest topics in the entire national college basketball conversation in the last week, and not for the right reasons.
The Longhorns have dropped three of their last four in Big 12 play with two of those coming against teams in the bottom half of the projected conference standings.
Saturday might be the lowest point for the entire market on Texas this season under first-year head coach Chris Beard. It's a prime revenge spot for the Longhorns after Oklahoma State beat them by 13 in Stillwater two weeks ago, too.
Oklahoma State has won consecutive games in conference play, including a stunning win over defending national champion Baylor and then a late comeback victory at home over TCU. It's natural to expect the Cowboys to be a bit flat here as well.
In terms of situational spots, the Longhorns are one of the best on the entire Saturday card.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Two-point shots tend to have much less variance in the long term than 3s, and Texas' defense in the middle was stellar against Oklahoma State in the first meeting. And that was on the road in Stillwater.
Oklahoma State made just 12-of-35 2s, the exact same poor mark the Cowboys had when they lost by 21 to Texas Tech in Lubbock.
The Pokes' price in the market, résumé and ranking in predictive metrics are inflated by the seven-point win over Baylor that was actually a bit fraudulent when you consider the quality of shots taken in the game.
🐻Don't Worry Bears Fans🐻
Based on the quality of possessions the Bears got yesterday, the #SicEm Bears were expected to win by 10 and win the game 83% of the time!🤯
THIS TEAM IS STILL ELITE…#PROCESSOVERRESULTpic.twitter.com/yUkTzGhhdY
— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) January 16, 2022
ShotQuality had the Bears winning that game by 10, and thus, it shouldn't be a concern for Texas backers on Saturday. It's just that Baylor had a bad shooting day and the Cowboys made a lot of difficult scores through traffic and contests.
The Cowboys totaled only 57 points in Lubbock and had issues with turnovers and finishing at the rim. I expect this game to go similarly on offense for OSU, as Texas takes away the paint and makes the Cowboys shoot.
Just an average shooting day for the Cowboys won't lead to many easy points at all.
Texas Longhorns
Texas has been the victim of some brutal opposition shooting of late, and that's unlikely to continue against Oklahoma State.
In the Longhorns' last three losses, Oklahoma State made 8-of-17 (47%) from deep, Iowa State made 10-of-23 (43%) and Kansas State made 7-of-18 (39%). Not one of those three teams would be considered good jump shooting teams, and the variance is bound to swing back their way a bit.
Yes, the Beard defense focuses on taking away the middle and can leave space on the perimeter, but there's no way teams will continue to shoot this well against UT. For example, Oklahoma State is actually one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the entire country at 29.4%, but it had its best day from 3 in the entire season in the last win.
ShotQuality said that Iowa State didn't even get open 3s in its win over the Longhorns, but Gabe Kalscheur had a career day and made a ton of contested shots.
The Longhorns are still elite at turning over opponents and rank fourth in the country in doing just that. Compare this to an OSU offense that badly struggles in both transition defense and turns it over a lot of itself, and you have a potential recipe for Texas to run Oklahoma State out of Austin on Saturday.
Because of its playing style, Texas tends to run away and hide when leading too, as the Horns have done in their three Big 12 wins, all by 13-plus points.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Betting Pick
When we talk about situational buy-low and sell-high spots in college basketball, this is a prime example. Texas has run into a ton of hot shooters and lost games despite not actually playing that much worse.
And Oklahoma State — a team expected to be middling in the Big 12 — has had its expectations raised considerably because of its wins over Baylor and Texas. That's despite the fact that those major wins were based around shooting variance and a hot night from a terrible shooting team.
As long as the number is right, this is a spot I'll play every single time.
I feared this would open closer to 10 and the market would consider spot and revenge, but the market opened this at 8. I'm happy to lay the points with the favorite that should be motivated, is at home and needs the win to save its season.
Texas is the much better team and matches up well with the Cowboys' limited offense. I'd play it at -9 or better.
Pick: Texas -9 or better
