Purdue vs. Michigan Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | -164 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | +136 |
COVID postponements have created some strange schedule spots. Last year had the back-to-back wrinkle, but this year, many schools are dealing with condensed windows thanks to rescheduling.
Purdue and Michigan both qualify, as both are playing their third game in six days. Notably, the start of that stretch on Saturday was Michigan at Purdue.
The proximity to that game creates an easy comparison in terms of the line. That game closed Purdue -9.5 with a total of 145.5. The spread for Thursday of Purdue -3 makes sense — just over three points for home value on either side — but the change in total is notable.
The first meeting only had 65 possessions, but both teams scored incredibly efficiently. The game landed at 158 points, and Purdue’s insane offense has been an over machine as of late.
To wit, five straight Boilermakers games (and 10 of the last 12) have gone over.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is a known commodity at this point, so I will not belabor this section. The Boilermakers are widely known for their colossal center duo, with larger-than-life Zach Edey being a dominant force in the paint.
Recently, though, this has become Jaden Ivey’s team. Since his return from a hip injury, Ivey has gone nuclear, particularly since re-entering the starting lineup three games ago.
In that span, Ivey has posted a preposterous line of 23.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game on 48.1% shooting (93.3% at the free throw line).
Matt Painter has given Ivey the keys, running more pick-and-roll rather than the post up-heavy attack we have seen most of the year. That makes the Boilers incredibly difficult to guard.
Ivey is a devastating athlete off of the bounce, and his reads out of ball screens continue to get better and better. His individual brilliance was the primary reason Purdue blew out Illinois in the second half on Tuesday.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off of a crawling brawl — a 58-57 win at Penn State.
The Athletic’s Brendan Quinn summed it up with this nugget:
Michigan's 17 made FGs tonight at Penn State is its fewest in a victory since a 54-50 win at Rutgers on Jan. 20, 2015
— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 9, 2022
That game had just 57 possessions, primarily due to the Nittany Lions’ deliberate pace.
Keeping Purdue to a half-court game is vital to beating it, though. Michigan should be focused on maintaining the tempo of the first game — Purdue’s transition attack is too deadly.
As it did in the first meeting, Michigan must play through Hunter Dickinson. The big lefty erupted for 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting, and his evolving perimeter stroke can give Edey and Trevion Williams problems.
Dickinson and the rest of the Wolverines need to amp up their production on the glass, though. They were out-rebounded 32-22 in West Lafayette. If they hope to pull an upset and boost their tournament credentials, they need to be closer to even in that department.
Purdue vs. Michigan Betting Pick
The drastic movement on the total just five days later has me tempted to endorse the under, but Purdue’s offense is simply on another level right now.
Watching the Boilers put up 80 points game after game eventually teaches you not to grab the hot pan.
From a side perspective, the spot probably plays better for Michigan. The Crisler Center should be rocking, and Michigan desperately needs a key win to nudge the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
No need to get cute here, though. Purdue is on a tirade across the Big Ten schedule, surging to the top of the standings after a 1-2 start. This is a short price to lay with one of the country’s elite teams.
With the way Ivey is balling out in the pick-and-roll, I think Purdue gets the season sweep over the scuffling Wolverines.
