San Diego State vs. Colorado State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | -138 |
Colorado State got off to an 11-0 start before it visited San Diego State and left with a 30-point loss. A horrific shooting day — 27.9% from the field and 15% from three — doomed the Rams.
Colorado State would go on to win its next five games before consecutive losses to UNLV and Wyoming. It will enter this one at 16-3 overall and 6-3 in the Mountain West, which is tied for third with SDSU and behind Boise State and Wyoming.
San Diego State is 12-5 and 4-2 in the Mountain West. It's coming off a 72-47 victory over New Mexico on Monday, the Aztecs' third conference victory by at least 25 points this season.
The Aztecs have one of the nation's most stifling defenses. However, Colorado State has one of the nation's best offenses. Defense won round one. Will Colorado State get revenge on its home floor?
San Diego State Wins With Defense
The Aztecs are led by senior guard Matt Bradley. The Cal transfer is averaging 16 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. He is averaging 20 points in his last three outings and had 26 points and 7 rebounds in the first matchup against Colorado State.
Bradley is the only double-digit scorer for San Diego State, which is 321st in scoring offense at 64.6 points per game. The Aztecs are also 313th in offensive rating and 205th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
However, SDSU has not needed much offense as good as it has been defensively.
The Aztecs are fourth nationally in scoring defense (56.8 PPG), first in defensive rating and second in adjusted defensive efficiency. They're also third in effective field goal percentage, third in field goal percentage defense and 19th in 3-point field goal percentage defense.
San Diego State has stepped it up even more over the last nine games. In that span, SDSU is first nationally in fewest points allowed, opponent field goal percentage, opponent effective field goal percentage and opponent two-point field goal percentage. As a result, the Aztecs are 7-2 in that span.
Senior forward Nathan Mensah is the defensive anchor and is averaging 7.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Against New Mexico, he had four blocks and five steals in just 20 minutes. He became the first player in school history to accomplish that and just the third player across the country this season.
Colorado State Has Offensive Options
While SDSU wins with its defense, Colorado State's offense has done the trick this season. The Rams average 78.3 PPG, 36th nationally, and are 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in offensive rating.
They are also fourth in field goal percentage, 22nd in 3-point shooting, seventh in free throw shooting percentage and is 18th in fewest turnovers committed.
David Roddy leads the team in scoring (18. 6 PPG) and rebounding (7.7 RPG), and is second with 2.9 assists. He was recently named to the Wooden Award Watch list and the Karl Malone Award Watch list for the nation's top power forward.
Point guard Isaiah Stevens is averaging 16.3 points and 5.1 assists and is shooting 39% from behind the arc. Yet, he is not even close to being the best 3-point shooter on his own team. Roddy is shooting 48% from deep while John Tonje and Dischon Thomas are at 44 and 43%, respectively. Tonje is also averaging 10.2 points and 3.2 rebounds off the bench.
Defensively, CSU is 139th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 174th in defensive efficiency. The Rams can particularly struggle against bigger wings as their guards are undersized. In addition to Bradley, they have given up 45 points to UNLV's Bryce Hamilton and 35 points to Wyoming's Hunter Maldonado. The Rams are also 281st in two-point percentage defense.
San Diego State vs. Colorado State Betting Pick
The Mountain West has run through San Diego State for many years and the Aztecs have particularly owned Colorado State. The Aztecs have swept the season series in 12 of the last 22 seasons, won 11 of the last 15 meetings at Moby Arena and seven of the last eight overall.
However, while Colorado State lost the first meeting this season by 30, it was a four-point game at halftime. It is unlikely that CSU shoots 28% again despite SDSU's defense. If CSU can keep Bradley in check this time around, SDSU will struggle to score.
Colorado State also cannot afford to lose a third straight if it wants to keep alive its hopes of a Mountain West regular season title and at-large NCAA tournament berth. The Rams are also 10-1 at home this season and 9-2 historically in "Orange Out" home games.
I like Colorado State to get back on track and conquer its demons against San Diego State. I will be backing the Rams as short home favorites.
