Seton Hall vs St. John's Odds
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -104 |
Conference play in college basketball lays out some interesting scenarios, especially as the NCAA tournament approaches.
Obviously there are teams jockeying for seeding at the top and the teams firmly on the bubble.
Behind those teams in the league standings, however, are plenty of teams seeing the writing on the wall. Some can squint and see the bubble if they pull off a miracle in February. Others have no shot at the postseason, save for a conference tournament run.
Wednesday’s Big East matchup between the Seton Hall Pirates and St. John’s Red Storm features a team from each of those categories. Seton Hall has bubble dreams. St. John’s is playing the role of chaotic spoiler.
Gauging how teams respond in these scenarios is never easy, but that’s the task at hand for basketball bettors.
Seton Hall Pirates
Shaheen Holloway's chances of another miracle March are growing dimmer week by week. The former Saint Peter's head coach — now leading the charge at his alma mater — finds his team grasping for the bubble.
Just one of the 81 Bracketologists aggregated by Bracket Matrix currently places the Pirates in the field of 68. Most have tagged Seton Hall — at best — with the dreaded "First Four Out" or "Next Four Out" moniker.
Seton Hall's season could be a foregone conclusion, if not for a few narrow victories. The Pirates boast wins over Memphis, Rutgers and UConn by four combined points.
Swing any of those three outcomes and this team has no prayer of playing in the postseason.
In some respects, Seton Hall has done a good job holding serve, especially in conference. A neutral-court loss to Siena is bad, but not deadly. In Big East play, Holloway's Pirates have swept their five games against the bottom four teams in the league (Butler, St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown).
Avoiding disaster only gets you so far. Against the top five teams in the conference, Seton Hall is just 1-5.
Some of this is due to the grind-it-out style that Seton Hall lives by. The Pirates have a top-15 defense in the nation, but find themselves stuck in the mud too often offensively.
With little shooting pop and bad spacing as a result, Seton Hall can really win a game in the trenches.
The random, high-variance hot shooting night isn't an option.
St. John's Red Storm
The Red Storm were 11-1 on Dec. 20, with the only defeat coming to a top-20 team.
Sounds promising!
A little context would disagree. That success came against the 330th-ranked non-conference schedule, per KenPom.
Since that hot start, the rigors of Big East play have overwhelmed St. John's. Sitting at 4-7 — with three of those wins over cellar-dwellers Butler, DePaul and Georgetown — is not a comfortable place to be as we turn to January.
St. John's has talent and, perhaps even more clearly, an identity. The Red Storm are going to make you play up-and-down the court for 90 minutes while they relentless attack off the dribble.
Ideally, that would mean strong takes to the rim.
In practice, that's not what the Red Storm are doing. St. John's scores the third-highest percentage of points from 2-point land in the country, but ranks 62nd in percentage of shots at the rim.
Even worse, St. John's ranks 309th in free-throw rate.
That's a lot of driving away from the analytics-heaven beyond the 3-point line in favor of 2-point jumpers, floaters and lower-value looks.
Even scarier, three of St. John's most frequent ball-handlers turn the ball over at an alarming rate, over 20% of the Johnnies' used possessions.
The resulting game plan is inducing chaos. Inside Carnesecca Arena, some opponents fall prey to the madness.
Seton Hall vs St. John's Betting Pick
This game has the potential to turn chaotic.
St. John's plays at the fastest tempo in the Big East and will want this game to quickly devolve into a track meet.
Seton Hall is not interested in that game plan. The Pirates want this game to look more like a Greco-Roman wrestling bout.
The first time these two teams played, Seton Hall was able to slow the pace to 71 total possessions, tied for St. John's second-slowest Big East game this season.
In that game, Seton Hall shot the ball well and rebounded it even better, totaling 88 points. That feels unlikely to recur, especially on the road in Queens.
I like St. John's to create the chaos, but Seton Hall to control the pace, leading to a slow-motion train wreck. I like the under, especially up at 143.5
Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 141.5) |
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