Seton Hall vs. UConn Odds
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Seton Hall and Connecticut will have a rematch of their thrilling Jan. 8 conference game on Wednesday. The Huskies will look to defend home court and get revenge for their overtime loss in the last meeting.
The Huskies barely survived a road trip to St. John's on Sunday, rallying from seven points down in the second half to win by three. UConn's offense has been inconsistent at best this season, but Wednesday's opponent hasn't been a model of consistency in the Big East, either.
Seton Hall gave Villanova a great upset run as nine-point underdogs on Saturday in Philadelphia, even though the Pirates' excellent perimeter shooting wasn't enough to pull off the upset in an eventual six-point defeat.
Both of these teams have similar profiles at both ends of the floor, featuring length, excellent interior defense, occasionally missing offense and inconsistent perimeter shooting.
Both teams shot the ball at an elite rate from beyond the arc in the first meeting, but that's been more of a rarity for both this season than a common occurrence.
Even though Seton Hall generally likes to play uptempo, I'd expect the elite interior defenses to force most of the shots to come from isolation and the perimeter, thus making it difficult for a repeat performance from the first meeting.
Seton Hall Pirates
Seton Hall has a length advantage over almost every team in the entire country, but Connecticut is a squad that can match the Pirates in the size and on the interior overall.
The Pirates are ninth in the country in average height, but the Huskies aren't far behind in 36th.
Seton Hall's perimeter offense ran really hot on Saturday at Villanova, as the Pirates made 11-of-26 from beyond the arc. However, that's atypical for them, as they rank 208th in 3-point field goal percentage nationally.
Given that Seton Hall is just 228th in ShotQuality catch and shoot 3s, it shouldn't be that much of a surprise that guys like Myles Cale and Kadary Richmond aren't consistently shooting above 35% from beyond the arc.
The offense relies heavily on isolation to generate shots, but it hasn't been nearly as efficient since Bryce Aiken went out with a concussion.
Richmond stepped up on Saturday, and had his best game of the year against UConn in the last meeting, but he's not enough to carry an offense that won't be able to get much at the rim otherwise against an elite interior defense.
The Pirates like to go uptempo on offense, but they're facing one of the best transition defenses in the entire country in UConn (19th in ShotQuality allowed at that end of the court).
That could force the Pirates to play a little bit slower than they usually do, which will help the under here.
Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut's defense doesn't force a ton of turnovers, or even really look to get out in transition much, but the Huskies are an elite unit, which gives them tremendous upside in March if the offense can put the pieces together.
They'll be out for revenge after the OT loss at Seton Hall, and it's hard to see how the Pirates consistently score in this matchup without Aiken.
It took an absurd shooting day for Seton Hall to get to 1.1 PPP against Villanova last weekend, and the Pirates only shot 43% on 2-point field goals against a weaker interior defense.
Now, the Pirates face off against Adama Sanogo and the No. 4 defense in the nation on the interior.
UConn does an excellent job of chasing shooters off of the line. The Huskies guard isolation and ball screens really well, and defend the perimeter at a top-50 rate against catch and shoot and off the dribble 3s.
There's no real weakness for this Huskies defense. The unit held St. John's to just 0.82 PPP on Saturday.
I still have major question marks about this offense when it faces a physical defense — look no further than the Villanova game 10 days ago — but the defense should be able to prevent Seton Hall second-chance looks, and the length should keep the Pirates from an efficient shooting game.
Seton Hall vs. UConn Betting Pick
Rematches between two teams deep into conference play tend to play at a somewhat slower pace because of familiarity and a general slowdown of the sport's pace as it nears the end of the regular season.
But this matchup especially sets up for Connecticut to control tempo on its home floor.
That's especially true when you consider how great the Huskies' transition defense is. The Pirates won't be able to effectively run and get great shots in transition on the road.
Preventing second-chance looks because of how well both teams crash the offensive glass could be an issue here, but fewer possessions and likely much worse shooting efficiency from the first meeting points me toward the under.
Even though both offenses might get multiple attempts per trip down the floor, neither is an efficient offense, and both interior defenses are top-15 in the entire country.
I'll take my chances on some inefficient perimeter shooting and a tight, low-scoring game in the rematch.
