Seton Hall vs. Villanova Odds
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | +333 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Seton Hall has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the entire country this season, but there are signs that the Pirates are turning the corner and improving again as they head on the road to play Villanova on Saturday.
The Wildcats survived injuries to both Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie with wins against UConn and St. John's in the last two games, but Gillespie didn't look 100% or play his best in the last game at St. John's. The Wildcats will need him to be at his best against an underrated Seton Hall defense.
The Pirates lost the last meeting with the Wildcats at home, but that was right after Seton Hall came off its COVID-19 pause, and there's reason to believe that their season long metrics are skewed against them because of this.
It wasn't that long ago that Seton Hall was 9-1 in the nonconference, and even though they'll be without star man Bryce Aiken, the Pirates' length and defensive ability should travel and keep them competitive in this game.
Seton Hall Pirates
To properly break down the Seton Hall season, you have to break it into three parts to really gauge their performances. Seton Hall was 9-1 in the nonconfernece and had wins against Michigan, Texas and Rutgers. They lost at Ohio State by only three and were a top 30 KenPom team at that point.
The COVID-19 pause came at a bad time for the Pirates, who then had to play Providence and Villanova without Tyrese Samuel and Ike Obiagu. The Pirates lost two games in the final minute away from home at Marquette and DePaul and have started to really turn the corner in the last handful of games as they've gotten healthier.
The Pirates defense has consistently graded out as elite based on ShotQuality, even when teams went through a stretch of making a lot of 3s against them. Seton Hall ranks seventh in overall SQ defense and has been a game unlucky in net based on projected record.
Villanova is one of the slowest teams in the country and is excellent at shooting from 3, and Eric Dixon has really improved in finishing at the rim. But Seton Hall is top 10 in the nation in finishing at the rim defense, top eight in halfcourt defense and top 50 at guarding the 3-point line, based on ShotQuality.
Seton Hall will have problems scoring in this game, but they can absolutely slow down the Villanova offense.
Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats survived multiple injury scares and appear to be turning the corner on them, but Gillespie had his worst game of the season against St. John's. He didn't score, took only five shots and played only 25 minutes.
Villanova's offense without him just isn't nearly as efficient because of his ball movement and shooting ability. Backup Chris Arcidiacono isn't ready to be a big minute, high major player at the moment, and the length of the Seton Hall backcourt could frustrate Villanova in this game.
The Wildcats shot 55% from 3 last week against Connecticut, or else that game might have been a lot more competitive down the stretch and the cover would have been in play. If Villanova shoots that well again, the 'Cats probably win going away, but Seton Hall is a better perimeter defense than Connecticut based on all of the metrics.
While Adama Sanogo's early foul trouble against Eric Dixon also hurt UConn last week, Seton Hall has multiple different looks that they can throw at Dixon to try to limit him on the offensive glass. From Samuel to Obiagu to Trey Jackson, the Pirates and Kevin Willard have many more options and a versatile front line.
Seton Hall vs. Villanova Betting Pick
This line opened at 10 offshore and immediately fell to 9.5, and I'd expect that to drop closer to nine by tip-off. As good as Villanova has been at home in the Big East over the last five years, Seton Hall's defense should travel and make it really difficult for the Wildcats to generate more than four possessions of separation.
KenPom projects this at 10 as well, but when you factor in the COVID pause hurting the season-long metrics on the Pirates, it should be a more competitive game than Pomeroy is projecting.
Unlike Connecticut last Saturday who showed up flat, the Pirates need a statement win to add to their resume, and there's a chance the Wildcats get caught looking ahead to the Tuesday clash with Providence knowing that they already beat Seton Hall own the road in the first meeting.
That first game was sneaky close despite the final score, and this game should be pretty competitive too. As long as Seton Hall protects the ball and makes Nova play in the halfcourt, the Pirates keep this close.
