Baylor vs. Texas Odds
| Baylor Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | -190 |
| Texas Longhorns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | +160 |
This might be the best game of Saturday's slate as the No. 9 Baylor Bears will host the No. 8 Texas Longhorns in a crucial matchup for Big 12 Tournament seeding.
The Bears own an elite offense and a suspect defense, while the Longhorns are a tad more balanced, even if their offense is better than their defense.
However, both teams have a tendency to slow the ball down, at least on the defensive end.
Texas limits 3-pointers on defense — which the Bears love to take — and each can control the ball on offense without many costly turnovers.
Read below for college basketball odds, picks and a prediction for Texas vs. Baylor.
Texas Longhorns
Texas has a lead on the Bears in the Big 12 standings by two games, which is critical going into the final week. If the Longhorns can win this matchup on Saturday, they essentially wither down the conference crown to Kansas and themselves.
Defensively, Texas is far better than the Bears. It holds the 30th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to Baylor’s ranking of 94th, per KenPom.
The Longhorns are better defensively thanks to their ability to limit 3-pointers. They're not necessarily elite on the perimeter, but the Longhorns hold opponents to a 35.8% 3-point attempt percentage.
At Baylor, the Longhorns held the Bears to 8-of-26 from downtown. Yes, this is a different looking team than the last time these two faced a few weeks ago, but Texas had the Bears' number from deep then and could very well here, too.
As a team, Baylor shoots 36.6% from deep, so Texas holding it in check from 3 will assist for an under.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
One area of concern for Texas will be crashing the glass. Per ShotQuality, the Bears rank 17th in rebounding rate while Texas ranks 132nd.
This is a wide discrepancy and could further help the Bears haul in offensive boards for second-chance points.
Baylor Bears
The Bears are an offensive juggernaut, but they have had some issues on defense. However, they do rank 50th in shot selection (ShotQuality) defensively, which is better than their efficiency mark.
In addition, they ward off post-up points by allowing the second-fewest points per possession (PPP) on defense.
Texas does not default to post-ups, but it has scored 54.1% of its total points this year inside the arc, averaging 54.6% on 2s. Any bit helps for the Bears on defense.
Texas is elite at finishing at the rim (1.25 PPP). Baylor is not the best, but it ranks 66th in this metric defensively (1.13 PPP), so this should help on the margins, especially with the home crowd behind it.
Now, Baylor is the slower-paced of these two teams. It ranks 229th, per KenPom, in Adjusted Tempo. The Bears average 17.8 seconds per possession on offense and 17.5 seconds per possession on defense.
The Longhorns are much quicker — 93rd in Adjusted Tempo — occupying only 16.4 seconds per possession on offense.
That said, the Longhorns like to slow other teams on defense, so this will also factor into the total at the end of the day.
Baylor vs. Texas Prediction & Pick
Baylor has some defensive concerns, but look for the Bears to step up in terms of defending the paint, as the Longhorns struggle with 3s at times.
On the other side of the court, Texas should limit Baylor’s 3-point attack, which is a majority of the Bears’ offense.
Baylor will probably win the rebounding battle, but as long as Texas can steal some rebounds on defense, it will prevent the Bears from getting many second-chance buckets.
Take this under at 153, and play it to 150.5.
Pick: Under 153 (Play to 150.5) |
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