Texas Tech vs. Kansas Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 +100 | 139.5 -105o / -115u | +230 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 139.5 -105o / -115u | -290 |
The deepest and most competitive conference from top to bottom this college basketball season has been the Big 12, and two of its three best teams are set to face off in Kansas on Big Monday as Texas Tech visits Lawrence.
The Jayhawks have revenge on their mind following Texas Tech's 75-67 win over KU in Lubbock on Jan. 8.
The Red Raiders' interior defense has shut down numerous Big 12 teams, including KU, Baylor and Iowa State already, but it's a classic get-right spot for a Kansas team that has sputtered through four of its last five conference games.
Kansas still sits at 5-1 in conference play but needed miraculous late comebacks and last-second shots to beat both Iowa State and Kansas State in the last two weeks. The Jayhawks also survived a late scare from Oklahoma in a three-point victory.
The Red Raiders, meanwhile, notched back-to-back home wins and covers against Iowa State and West Virginia, shooting 36 free throws at home on Saturday as they used second-half runs to pull away in both games.
Mark Adams' no-middle defense at Tech has helped force teams to score from the perimeter, but can Kansas exploit it at home? Let's dive into the matchup.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Any doubts about the health of Terrence Shannon after his return from injury can be laid to rest following his performance on Saturday in Lubbock. Shannon has missed 10 games for Texas Tech this year and really struggled to get involved in the first two games he returned.
He managed just six total points and attempted only nine shots in the two games against Kansas State and Iowa State. But Shannon scored 23 points, scored at all levels and played 32 minutes in the win over West Virginia on Saturday.
His insertion back into the starting lineup gives Adams even more depth to play with on a roster that is filled with long, athletic defenders who make it near impossible to score at the rim.
You will not score in the paint against Texas Tech.
Last 7 games:
– Gonzaga: 16 paint points (season-low)
– Eastern Washington: 4 (season-low)
– Alabama St: 8 (season-low)
– Iowa St: 6 (season-low)
– Kansas: 18 (season-low)
– Baylor: 22 (season-low)
– OK State: 20 (season-low)— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) January 14, 2022
There are two main areas Kansas likes to generate offense from: transition and finishing at the rim. The Jayhawks are elite and rank inside the top 50 at both this season, but the Red Raiders defense is 23rd-best at preventing good looks at the rim, per ShotQuality, and ranks in the top five of highest percentage of shots coming from beyond the 3-point line against their defense.
Texas Tech will turn Kansas into jump shooters. While the Jayhawks could get hot early and run the Red Raiders out of the gym in a blowout, it's more likely that Kansas will go into another bizarre scoring drought that has plagued the Jayhawks offense recently.
As KU fails to get easy points at the rim and the lack of depth in shooters catches up to it, Texas Tech should be able to grind its way back into this game.
Kansas Jayhawks
The advanced metrics suggested that some offensive regression was coming for Kansas following its blowout win at home over the Mountaineers on Jan. 15, but the defense is what has plagued this team in recent games on the road.
Conference road wins are never going to be easy, but the Jayhawks have failed to cover in four of their last five.
The defense has allowed at least 102 points per 100 possessions in three of those five games, and it hasn't even come from excellent opponent perimeter shooting. Teams have shot 35% or worse from beyond the arc in every Big 12 game against the Jayhawks, and yet, the defense is still sitting outside the top 50 in both KenPom and BartTorvik predictive metrics.
The biggest mismatch stylistically comes on the glass, where Kansas was unable to effectively rebound Tech's misses in the first meeting.
I'm not sure that's going to change after Tech pulled in 12 offensive rebounds in the first game and finished at a high percentage at the rim against a still mediocre rim defense of Kansas.
The Jayhawks haven't fixed either issue and still struggle with defensive rebounding and guarding the rim, so I expect easier looks for the Red Raiders on offense and second-chance looks to help them stay within reach of KU.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas Betting Pick
This is an all-in Kansas spot when you factor in the recent revenge against the only team it's lost to in conference play. The pregame number seems about right to me when you factor in home court and Kansas being the marginally better team on a neutral court.
The Jayhawks could come out firing and look to get out and run on Texas Tech, but once the Red Raiders defense settles in, they should be able to keep Kansas' offense in check.
Ochai Agbaji made 6-of-9 from 3 and scored 24 points when these two teams met in Lubbock, but I still doubt he will maintain his current 45% shooting rate from beyond the arc.
Kansas could make an early run and come out with a ton of energy in front of a rowdy crowd at home at the Phog Allen Fieldhouse, but I expect Adams and Texas Tech to be able to make some adjustments defensively and keep the Red Raiders in this ball game.
Especially if the Jayhawks start shooting well from 3 and aren't able to consistently score at the rim, I'll be firing at any Texas Tech number plus number of more than 10 live.
