Wisconsin vs. Purdue Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | -800 |
As we turn into the new year, college basketball's best conferences are heating up with the top teams renewing rivalries. There may not be a deeper or more talented conference in college basketball this season than the Big Ten.
This week, many of the Big Ten's best will begin to square off, with eyes on a conference championship or building an NCAA Tournament resume. Monday's tilt between Wisconsin and Purdue is a prime example of that.
The Badgers are eager to show that they belong among the top tier of the conference. Meanwhile, Purdue is looking to spark a run that leads to a Big Ten title and a No. 1 seed in March.
With the Boilermakers playing hosts in West Lafayette, where should bettors land on this classic Big Ten battle?
Wisconsin Badgers
There was a malaise surrounding the Wisconsin basketball program entering this season. Brad Davison, again? Really?
The Badgers have responded with some impressive performances, like wins over Indiana, Houston and Saint Mary's.
Wisconsin has been pushed into a new era by the emergence of Johnny Davis in his second year in Madison. The 6-foot-5 swingman is averaging 21 points and seven rebounds per game. His 30-point, four-steal performance in a win over Houston signaled that he had made the leap into stardom.
Aside from Davis, however, the Badgers' offense can be predictable and sluggish. Wisconsin ranks second in the nation in turnover rate — protecting the ball better than any team except Iowa — but doesn't take full advantage of those extra possessions created by avoiding turnovers.
The Badgers rank outside the top 300 in the nation in field goal percentage, 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. Not ideal!
The Wisconsin plan to play slow, maximize possessions and get stops defensively makes sense on paper. And yet, if this team is going to continue to shoot this poorly, slowing the game down becomes counter-productive.
If the other team can find scoring chances, Wisconsin's slow pace just makes the game lower variance and creates less chances for Davis to make an impact. Against other Big Ten teams that feel comfortable playing at a slow tempo in the half court, Wisconsin will get beat at its own game.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is the class of the Big Ten and one of the best teams in college basketball. The Boilermakers' offense ranks first in the nation in efficiency, per KenPom, thanks to top five marks in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage.
The inside-out flow of Purdue's offense — from its dominant back-to-the-basket big men to dynamic guards on the perimeter — makes the Boilers very difficult to stop.
The true catalyst of the Purdue offense is sophomore guard Jaden Ivey. He is a dynamic scorer in transition or in the flow of Matt Painter's offense.
Even if the opposing team has an answer for Purdue's pair of dominant big men or the Boilermakers' shooters go cold for the night, Ivey's skills as a driver — who can knife through defenses, especially off of a steal or when he flashes in the open court — create an element of Purdue's attack for which other teams are unable to prepare for.
If there's a weakness for Purdue, it comes in Painter's ability to build lineups on the floor.
Trevion Williams and Zach Edey are both All-American-level post players. As good as that might sound, in the modern style of basketball played in 2021, it means Painter can't play two of his three best players together.
In fact, according to the on/off numbers available at Hoop-Explorer, Painter hasn't even tried to play his pair of skyscrapers together so far this season.
Wisconsin vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Purdue will be challenged by the best teams in the Big Ten, especially on the road. This game is in West Lafayette and Wisconsin isn't in the same weight class as the Boilermakers.
Despite the size of this spread, it's hard to see how Wisconsin stops either of the Boilers' bigs on the interior. Purdue should dominate the glass, on both ends of the floor.
The hope for a Wisconsin win — or cover — is a glacially slow game where Purdue doesn't have enough possessions to separate itself from Wisconsin.
A few timely 3s from the Badgers and a big day from Davis opens the door for a close game, yet Purdue is more than comfortable playing at Wisconsin's pace and should not have any defensive lapses playing at Mackey Arena.
I'll be taking Purdue to cover, but I'm more confident in the under. Wisconsin is going to try to grind this game to a halt to keep the Purdue offense in check.
Even if Purdue wins in a blowout, I don't see how the Badgers score enough for this game to hit the over.
Pick: Under 140.5 | Purdue -12.5
