Wyoming vs. Colorado State Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Just 65 miles separate Laramie, Wyoming from Fort Collins, Colorado, and if the last game is any indication, Wyoming and Colorado State could be in for another Mountain West thriller in Moby Arena on Wednesday
Colorado State lost the game in Laramie on Jan. 31 after David Roddy's last-second free throw rimmed out, and the Cowboys won the game in overtime.
Now, the Rams have to defend home court with both the rivalry and the conference regular-season title on the line. Four teams are within two games of one another at the top of the Mountain West.
Wyoming and Colorado State feature two of the best coaches in the league, the two best offenses in the conference and some guys who are certain to be First Team All-MWC.
Between CSU star man Roddy and the dynamic point guard-center duo of Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike for Wyoming, the rematch should provide plenty of drama between these two near-locks for the NCAA Tournament.
Wyoming can exploit the Rams' biggest weakness — interior defense — while the Rams can exploit the Cowboys' biggest issue — perimeter defense.
Wyoming shot much better from 3 and won the first game at home in a back-and-forth thriller, but I'm expecting the Rams to defend home court to make for a dramatic final two weeks in the MWC.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming had one of the most impressive four game stretches that you'll see from a mid-major program, beating Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State and Utah State in four straight games.
All of the matchups came down to the final possessions, with the Cowboys winning two of them in overtime. Head coach Jeff Linder admitted that Wyoming was worn out after that run of games.
In a neutral let-down spot in a tough road environment, Wyoming lost in The Pit at New Mexico despite winning the ShotQuality report. The Cowboys just had an off night.
They bounced back with a comfortable win against Air Force, but now, the Cowboys need to gear up for the final five-game push here. If the Cowboys go 4-1, they're, at worst, likely to be co-champions of the Mountain West, especially given Boise's remaining schedule.
All in all, the countless close victories have made the Cowboys a bit fortunate this year. At 8-2 in close games, per BartTorvik, they rank 20th in the country in that metric.
They're a veteran bunch with good shooters, so it's not that surprising that they are good in close games. However, they were quite lucky to beat both CSU and Utah State during their recent run.
Based on KenPom and BartTorvik's luck and fortune unexplained by numbers ratings, Wyoming ranks among the top teams that have benefited from some bounces going its way in high-leverage moments.
Wyoming's defense is quite vulnerable defending both the perimeter and in ball screens, two areas that the Rams love to live offensively.
If the Cowboys get caught in transition as the Rams try to push pace, the Wyoming transition defense is outside the top 200.
Colorado State Rams
Two losses to UNLV will probably cost Niko Medved's squad a shot at the conference title in the regular season, but the Rams have enough wins banked to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013.
If the Rams were to run the table and win their remaining games, and get one additional loss from Boise and Wyoming, they'd split the league title based on the standings.
But otherwise, the Rams will want revenge for the first meeting that ShotQuality suggested they should have won on the road. Roddy's miss (he's a 71% shooter) would have dramatically changed the conference title picture.
Colorado State's defense has taken a bit of a dip of sorts compared to last season — despite most of the same players — but the Rams concede a bunch of open 3s and Wyoming made them pay in the first meeting.
The Cowboys made 9-of-21 (43% from beyond the arc) in that meeting.
The bigger surprise is that Colorado State hasn't shot the ball that well from beyond the arc this season, especially in conference play. The Rams rank 10th of 11 teams from 3-point range in the MWC, and that's going to positively regress at some point.
CSU projects as an elite jump-shooting team that can drill shots from everywhere on the floor, and given the number of Wyoming open looks conceded, Wednesday could be an optimal time for the Rams to find their range.
Wyoming vs. Colorado State Betting Pick
Colorado State opened as a short road underdog and closed as a favorite in Laramie, but both teams have a well above-average home-court advantage. The swing should be big enough for Colorado State to be a larger home favorite than it currently is in the market.
From a matchup perspective, Roddy did enough to combat Ike's ability in the post in the first meeting, and the Rams did lead that game by eight at one point in the second half.
They just couldn't make enough perimeter shots to keep the lead. Also, Wyoming shot its way back into the game.
If the positive shooting regression finally comes for the Rams in conference play, they're the better team. At home, they should win the Border War relatively comfortably.
