The Big 12 and Mountain West are serving up some fantastic basketball on Tuesday, and I’m interested in playing a pair of favorites who have their eyes trained on conference titles.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, February 11.
(Here's a parlay if you so choose to take that route.)
Arizona vs. Kansas State
Two of the hottest teams in the Big 12 are facing off on Tuesday at the Octagon of Doom.
How hot has Kansas State been in the past two and a half weeks? According to Bart Torvik, the Wildcats are the top-rated team in the country since Jan. 24. Jerome Tang’s team ranks eighth offensively and sixth defensively in that window.
Before this run, the Cats were 7-11 straight up and fairly broken on the offensive end. But now every starter is playing to his peak potential.
Dutch wing David N'Guessan has made 17 of his last 24 shots and Coleman Hawkins has gone thermonuclear on the defensive end. The Illinois transfer has recorded 18 “stocks” in the last four games.
While Kansas State’s sudden surge seemingly came out of nowhere, Arizona’s turnaround felt more inevitable.
Tommy Lloyd’s team struggled against quality opponents out of the gate, dropping five games before mid-December. But those five losses all came to teams currently projected in the NCAA Tournament field.
After limping out to that 4-5 start, the Wildcats have reeled off 13 of 14, including five wins over ranked opponents.
And the once-promising offense that had sputtered during Caleb Love’s off-nights, has come together in every way possible.
Evan Miya points to the maturation of Henri Veesaar, Arizona’s seven-foot Estonian import, as one of the reasons why it's turned the corner.
When Motiejus Krivas was lost for the season in December, Arizona needed to give his minutes on the low block to the sparingly used Veesaar. He’s responded on both ends of the floor and is now a part of the 12th-most efficient lineup in all of college basketball.
In simple terms, the market has overcorrected on Kansas State, which is coming off of an upset win over its in-state arch-rival Kansas on Saturday. Just three weeks ago, my power rankings would've made this game Arizona -8.5 and now the Wildcats are barely laying above a single possession.
Unlike Kansas, which scored just six fast-break points against Kansas State on Saturday, Arizona will speed this game up and burn Kansas State in transition, where it's struggled to slow teams down this season (161st).
Arizona broke the back of Texas Tech in its last game, scoring 25 fast break points while becoming the first team to beat the Red Raiders by more than five points this season.
Arizona's offense will win the day and cover this number easily.
Pick: Arizona -2.5 (Play to -4)
Colorado State vs. Utah State
A humbling loss to New Mexico to start the month (82-63) moved Utah State off the national radar. But when you zoom out and examine the Aggies’ body of work for the entire season, it’s clear that Jerrod Calhoun has done a masterful job in his first campaign in Logan.
The Aggies are killers on the offensive end. Among true mid-majors, they sport the highest offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom, Bart Torvik and Evan Miya.
Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev are the best backcourt duo you’ve never heard of.
Martinez attacks the rim and gets to the line at one of the highest rates in the country.
Meanwhile, Falslev carries the Aggies at times, leading on both ends of the floor. He had 28 points against an elite North Texas defense, dished out 11 assists in a blowout of Nevada, snagged 12 rebounds in a convincing win over Iowa and picked five player’s pockets in a one-point win over nationally-ranked San Diego State.
As a one-two punch, Martinez and Falslev are elite.
Also, Colorado State is an auto-fade as a road dog. Since 2020, the Rams are 9-18 ATS in spots like this one.
I would play this up to Utah State laying eight.
Pick: Utah State -6 (Play to -8)
