The quick Saturday to Tuesday turnaround can be difficult to navigate, especially when you’re struggling to shoot from the perimeter.
I’ve circled a pair of road 'dogs that are in for a world of hurt if their shooting luck doesn’t change in a major way on Tuesday.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, February 18.
(Here's a parlay if you so choose to take that route.)
Kansas vs. BYU
Alarm bells are sounding in Lawrence. The Jayhawks haven’t cleared 74 points in five straight games and have posted a 1-6 record ATS at the window in their past seven.
The last time Kansas went into a deep freeze on the offensive end like this was in 2021. That Jayhawk team was buoyed by the 12th-rated defense, according to KenPom.
In the eyes of advanced metrics sites like Bart Torvik, Evan Miya and Haslametrics, Kansas is even better on the defensive end this season than it was in 2021. However, it’s not translating to wins, so what gives?
Kansas struggles to shoot consistently from the perimeter, and that’s despite Zeke Mayo catching fire from long range. If you remove Mayo’s recent heater — 21-for-39 across his last six — Kansas’ shooting woes come into focus.
His teammates have shot 29% from long range during that stretch, and Rylan Griffen is a rotational player at this point.
The Alabama transfer was Bill Self’s perimeter answer out of the portal, but after shooting close to 40% from deep last season in Tuscaloosa, Griffen now finds himself mired in a shooting slump.
Now the Jayhawks are drawing one of the best offenses in the Big 12 on their home floor. The Cougars are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread at the Marriott Center in conference play.
They just ran the hottest team in America (Kansas State) off the floor on Saturday. That 15-point dismantling of the Wildcats was a defensive masterclass and should give them confidence heading into this pivotal Tuesday night meeting with Kansas.
When you dissect BYU’s defense, it really comes down to the 3-point arc. The Cougars allow teams to bomb away (25 3PA, 306th) and those attempts are often good looks, evidenced by the rate at which they’re falling (35%, 244th).
Teams like Houston and Texas Tech beat BYU by sticking with the 3-point shot, but Kansas has been reticent to shoot 3s at volume.
This offsets BYU’s fatal flaw and gives it a chance to continue this low-scoring streak for Kansas.
I would play the Cougs all the way to -4 on their home floor.
Pick: BYU -2.5 (Play to -4)
Northern Illinois vs. Akron
The Zips are the class of the MAC, and they do it with the kind of up-and-down basketball that NBA fans would love.
Akron pushes the tempo every chance it gets, scoring nearly 15 fast-break points per game. The Zips gouged a normally competent Northern Illinois transition defense for 22 points in their first meeting.
It was only Northern Illinois’ 29 foul-shot attempts that kept things reasonable in Dekalb.
The Huskies are a trainwreck on the offensive end (356th in KenPom), and they just expended a ton of energy in vain, losing in overtime to Ball State. That loss extends their current losing streak to six straight.
Offensively, the Zips come at you in waves, which is why they have 10 players that average north of 15 minutes per game. Their guard play is elite by MAC standards, and Nate Johnson is beginning to look like the Player of the Year in the MAC.
This number may seem daunting, but Akron puts on a show on its home floor. The Zips average above 90 points per game at home, and Northern Illinois is far too streaky to keep pace.
As long as the Huskies don’t get favorable whistles again, this should be a bloodbath.
Pick: Akron -20.5 (Play to -27.5)
