Every Saturday during the season, I'll share my favorite spots that I had circled (and are still in range for a bet). In addition to my raw projection, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my seven favorite spots on Saturday's slate. For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them.
I went 3-2 last Saturday with a tough break on Texas Tech in overtime, but that's now in the rearview. So, here's college basketball picks and odds, including my seven situational spots for Saturday, January 18.
Alabama +2.5 at Kentucky
Noon ET on ESPN
This is a great situational spot for the Tide, who are fresh off a home loss as a double-digit favorite.
Meanwhile, Kentucky comes into this one on a two-game winning streak after an impressive win at Mississippi State, followed by a home victory over a Wade Taylor IV-less Texas A&M squad. You should get the Tide's best effort here.
More importantly, I like the matchup, and there's at least a chance Lamont Butler doesn't go for Kentucky, which would be bad news against Mark Sears.
Kentucky's defense still has major issues. The Cats allow a ton of 3s (295th in 3PA rate allowed) with major regression looming (7th in 3P%), especially when you consider how poor their 2-point defense has been, which the Tide could also exploit.
Alabama's offense ranks third nationally in 2-point percentage, which spells trouble for a Kentucky team that ranks 214th at 51.9% and has been much worse in league play at 62.4% (last).
We know Alabama is going to chuck up a ton of 3s (34th in 3PA rate) and has positive regression likely headed its way (192nd in 3P%). Don't be surprised if the Tide have one of those days at the office where they hit 12-plus 3s. Alabama should also get plenty of second-chance looks and trips to the line for some easy points
Alabama's offense is elite when the 3s are falling, as long as it isn't turning the ball over, which has been a problem area for Nate Oats' bunch. On the season, the Tide rank outside the top 150 in turnover rate and have struggled even more in that department in league play. Against Ole Miss, 21 turnovers really cost them the game.
However, that shouldn't be an issue against a Kentucky defense that ranks 325th in turnover percentage.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama excels at limiting the 3 ball (41st in 3PA rate allowed), which is paramount against the flame throwers of Lexington, who can go off at a moment's notice.
They also won’t get killed on the offensive glass or with free throw attempts by the Cats. Alabama’s defense doesn’t force turnovers, but Kentucky never gives it away anyway.
Both teams want to get out in transition, but each defense excels at limiting those opportunities. While there will still be plenty of up-and-down in a game with a sky-high total of 179, this will likely be decided by which team can execute better in the half court.
If that's the case, I trust the Alabama defense a bit more, especially if the 3s start falling for Alabama.
This is a good spot and matchup for the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Alabama +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Georgia +7.5 vs. Auburn
1 p.m. ET on SECN
This is my favorite situational spot on the board. Auburn will head to Athens after destroying Mississippi State with Tennessee on deck.
It's also the second game the Tigers will play without stud big man Johni Broome. While his absence didn't hurt them against the Bulldogs, that was the first game without their star. In many cases, you tend to see everyone else really elevate their game in that scenario.
Plus, it didn't hurt that Mississippi State made just 3-of-24 from 3, which gave it no chance in the jungle.
For what it's worth, Auburn has shot north of 40% from 3 in league play, while holding opponents to under 25%. I don't think that's very sustainable.
Meanwhile, Georgia has only made 22.5% (last) of their 3s in league play, so don't be surprised if we see the Dawgs get some 3-point luck today.
While I do think Auburn's defense won't drop off without Broome, the Tigers will see a dip in terms of offensive efficiency, especially on the glass on both ends of the floor. Broome ranks in the top-50 nationally in both offensive and rebounding percentage.
Their size depth also takes a hit, especially if they ever get in foul trouble, which could happen here.
Georgia can take advantage of no Broome on the offensive glass, which should lead to plenty of second-chance opportunities. On the season, the Bulldogs rank 11th in offensive rebounding rate and second in second-chance conversion percentage.
For the entire season, which includes mostly Broome, Auburn's defense ranks 133rd and 190th, respectively.
Georgia can also get to the line frequently (26th in FTA rate) against the aggressive Auburn defense that will send opponents to the charity stripe (239th in FTA rate allowed).
Georgia does have major turnover issues, but Auburn's defense ranks outside the top 200 in forcing them. I also believe Asa Newell has an ideal skill set for attacking the Tigers near the basket, especially after grabbing offensive rebounds.
Georgia has also been a much different team at home all season, as evidenced by a rank of 352nd in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric. I expect a bounce-back effort after a blowout loss in Knoxville.
Ultimately, I love the spot and don't mind the matchup. Without accounting for the situation, I'd make Auburn around a 10-point favorite with Broome, who I have worth about five points to the spread.
Pick: Georgia +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
UMBC -1 vs. Maine
1 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This looks like a great spot to buy the Terriers at home following a bad home loss to bottom-feeder New Hampshire (which is at least playing better of late).
Meanwhile, I'm looking to fade Maine after three straight wins over the trio of last place teams in the America East. The Black Bears have shot an unsustainable 41% from 3 in league play. All of that looming regression could hit against a UMBC squad that excels at limiting 3-point looks.
Maine plays a very aggressive defense with a heavy use of zone press, but UMBC boasts plenty of ball handlers to deal with the pressure.
The Terriers are also relentless rim-attackers, which can work in this particular matchup.
UMBC is extremely undersized, but Maine doesn't really work through the post and won't dominate the boards on either end.c
This is a good spot and matchup.
Pick: UMBC -1 (Play to -2)
UL Monroe +2 vs. Louisiana
3 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Similar to Stephen F. Austin last weekend, this is the hold-your-nose buy-low spot of the day with a dreadful team. Louisiana Monroe has lost eight straight and may be underdogs in all but one remaining game the rest of the way.
This is its best opportunity to pick up a league win.
I don't have many positive things to say about the Warhawks, but I do believe we've likely reached the bottom on their market rating, especially when you consider how they performed last season with largely the same roster (21st in Minutes Continuity).
I also don't have many positive things to say about the Ragin' Cajuns, who I don't think you can justify being a road favorite over anybody in this league.
This is also a great situational spot for ULM. It stays home after a blowout loss on Wednesday, while Louisiana will hit the road for its second straight road game after losing at Arkansas State on Thursday. That extra day of rest and preparation without travel should help a Warhawks squad that lacks depth.
Plus, these teams played just last Saturday, making that extra time to make adjustments a bit more important.
In that meeting last week, Louisiana Monroe actually led by double digits in the second half before falling by three points.
The Warhawks lost despite missing 10 free throws (60%) and shooting sub-30% from 3, while dealing with major foul trouble to two starters. Meanwhile, Louisiana sank 11-of-28 triples (39.3%) and made 14-of-16 free throws (87.5%).
I just don't have much at all separating these teams, and I love the spot, so I'll take the points.
Pick: UL Monroe +2 (Play to +1)
West Virginia +6.5 vs. Iowa State
5 p.m. ET on ESPN+
I think it's time to sell the Cyclones, who really should've lost last week at Texas Tech if not for Elijah Hawkins getting in foul trouble and JT Toppin leaving with an injury.
They also benefited from Kansas' foul trouble and a key injury in their most recent victory.
I do believe in Iowa State as a real national title contender, but we've likely reached the peak of the market on its rating after 12 straight wins. Plus, this is a tough situational spot after two massive league wins.
Playing in Morgantown is never easy, especially with the students back in town. This will be a much different crowd than the one the Mountaineers had against Arizona, which was impacted by the winter storm. For big games, West Virginia has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.
From a matchup perspective, Javon Small (who's been incredible for the 'Eers all season) is the exact type of guard that can give Iowa State’s defense trouble. Plus, West Virginia doesn’t run offense through the post and isn’t reliant on transition offense, which are positives against the Clones, who allow neither.
The Mountaineers also have an outstanding defense that excels at limiting both opportunities in transition and at the rim, which are two requirements against Iowa State.
Per Synergy, Iowa State ranks in the 91st percentile in transition frequency and 95th in efficiency. West Virginia's defense ranks in the 14th percentile and 97th, respectively. In terms of near-proximity field goal percentage, Iowa State ranks sixth nationally, while West Virginia's defense ranks 38th.
Iowa State also excels at creating turnovers and turning them into points, but West Virginia isn't very sloppy with the ball. I think it also helps that the Mountaineers just played Houston, which should help them in terms of preparation for this matchup.
West Virginia will slow this game down and rely on its defense to keep it close. I do worry a bit about the rebounding edge for Iowa State, but West Virginia also won't get beat in transition off of misses. West Virginia will have to hit outside shots (which you need to do against Iowa State), and it's certainly capable of doing so.
The Mountaineers are also very comfortable late in the shot clock, which you need to be against Iowa State.
Lastly, I do think the loss of Milan Momcilovic matters for the Clones, especially on the offensive end of the floor, but also in terms of depth.
No player benefits more from his floor-stretching presence than Curtis Jones. While he's still certainly capable of going off at any given moment, you did see some of the struggles without Milan in the second half of that Kansas game.
This is a rare great spot where there isn't a tax on the home team, so I'm rolling with the 'Eers, who already have three wins vs. the current KenPom top-20, including one without Tucker DeVries at Kansas.
Pick: West Virginia +6.5 (Play to +6)
Arkansas +6 at Missouri
6 p.m. ET on ESPN
After four straight losses, Arkansas is entering must-win territory already. Is it time to catch the falling knife? This might be the spot against a Missouri team fresh off a monumental upset win at Florida, which will likely go down as one of the best resume wins for any team this season.
Arkansas certainly has its flaws, but it's also been bit by the 3-point variance monster on both ends of the floor in league play. The Razorbacks are only shooting 26.1% from deep against SEC competition, while allowing 35.4% of attempts from deep to go in.
That likely won’t persist when you consider they have the conference’s best 2-point defense to date (which is much better with Jonas Aidoo back in the lineup).
Additionally, Missouri has a number of players in its rotation who are currently shooting way over their heads from deep relative to their career averages, led by Caleb Grill (48.6% vs. 34% past five seasons) and Marques Warrick (46.2% vs. 34% past four seasons).
I doubt the Tigers will continue to shoot 39% from distance in league play.
The Missouri defense has issues when it’s not forcing turnovers, which might be tougher to do against an Arkansas squad that generally does an adequate job in that department.
This Arkansas team undoubtedly has more talent than Missouri, but John Calipari just hasn't figured out the right rotation. Historically, he usually does figure that out as he approaches February.
Plus, he hinted at using a higher frequency of the most ideal lineup in my eyes:
- Boogie Fland
- DJ Wagner
- Jonas Aidoo
- Adou Thiero
- Trevon Brazile
Per EvanMiya, this is the most efficient lineup Arkansas has used this season. From a defensive perspective, that's as good as it gets, and hopefully some shots start to fall on the other end against a Missouri team that will certainly give opponents open looks, which Arkansas has, at least, been generating.
Pick: Arkansas +6 (Play to +5.5)
San Francisco -2.5 vs. Oregon State
10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This is a tough spot for the Beavers after their massive upset against Gonzaga on Thursday night in their Super Bowl of the regular season.
It also took overtime, which is noteworthy considering Oregon State doesn't have much depth (320th in bench minutes, per KenPom).
We could see some fatigue on close outs during a quick turnaround road game against a Dons bunch that has an extra day of rest and preparation with no travel after an easy home victory on Wednesday.
Schematically, Oregon State plays zone on defense at a top-25 rate nationally under head coach Wayne Tinkle. That might not be as effective in this particular matchup.
While not a huge sample size, San Francisco does grade out elite against zone, ranking fifth in the country in points per possession, per Synergy. Plus, the Dons just saw zone on a season-high 23 possessions in their most recent game against Pepperdine.
As you might expect, Oregon State allows a high volume of 3-point attempts (291st in 3PA rate allowed).
Well, San Francisco will happily oblige from deep. The Dons rank 52nd in 3-point attempt rate and make them at a top-100 clip, with everyone on the roster capable of connecting from deep, led by the dynamic senior backcourt duo of Marcus Williams (39%) and Malik Thomas (40%).
Even seven-foot center Carlton Linguard can hit a few from beyond the arc (23-of-80 on the season).
Oregon State also boasts a bevy of deadly shooters, who have connected on nearly 38% of their 3-point attempts this season (32nd).
However, San Francisco does a very adequate job of limiting opponents from the outside. The Dons are also good enough at defending in the post, where Oregon State likes to work through in the half-court.
Lastly, it's not like the Beavers have been overly impressive in true road games this season.
Here are their results:
- L 58-55 at North Texas
- L 82-61 at Loyola Marymount
- L 82-81 at Santa Clara
- W 91-55 at Pacific
Give me the jump-shooting Dons to get it done at War Memorial.
Pick: San Francisco -2.5 (Play to -3)
