Change is unavoidable, and the college sports landscape is feeling that inevitability. Perhaps no league is as reflective of that than the Big 12.
The tectonic plates of the league are shifting seismically. This season, the league welcomes a powerhouse in Houston, and it's expanding its geographical footprint via schools from Ohio (Cincinnati), Utah (BYU) and Florida (UCF).
In a year, staple programs Oklahoma and Texas will be gone. In their place will step Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and old friend Colorado, morphing the Big 12 into a 16-team superleague.
Boiling it all down: the nation’s best basketball conference is getting even stronger, and this campaign’s 14-squad membership could put as many as nine or gasp 10 teams into the Big Dance.
The favorite at the top, though, is no surprise.
Big 12 Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via BetMGM) |
| Kansas | +150 |
| Houston | +375 |
| Texas | +550 |
| Baylor | +800 |
| TCU | +900 |
| Kansas State | +1800 |
| Texas Tech | +2500 |
| Iowa State | +2500 |
| Oklahoma State | +3000 |
| West Virginia | +3500 |
| Cincinnati | +4000 |
| BYU | +5000 |
| Oklahoma | +10000 |
| UCF | +10000 |
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The Favorites
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks claim their rightful spot atop the preseason betting odds. They can also be found atop the Big 12 preseason poll and the AP Top 25 poll.
Bill Self has grown accustomed to such lofty heights, and the winning pedigree helped him reel in Hunter Dickinson, the jewel of this offseason’s transfer portal.
How does Dickinson fit at a program generally known for winning, rather than garish personalities? Well, he’s a dominant interior player with tremendous touch, and Self has proven time and again he can feature post up players on elite teams.
Coupled with returning starters Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr. and K.J. Adams Jr. – arguably the best defensive trio in the entire country – Dickinson offers a needed jolt of offense.
Where else will the rest of the scoring come from? Is there enough shooting and wing dynamism to keep opposing defenses honest? This Jayhawk bunch, even more than most, may need to supplement its half-court attack with transition buckets.
A charity exhibition loss at Illinois indicated that there may be some growing pains.
Houston Cougars
Speaking of which, Houston steps into the Big 12 after a half-decade of giving the American a collective swirlie. Much like Gonzaga, Cougar detractors have reasoned that Houston would not fare as well in a power conference.
Can Kelvin Sampson & Co. quickly erase those concerns?
He has the roster to make it happen. Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts are “hard hat, lunch pail” types that fit perfectly in Houston’s physical, defensive identity.
Terrance Arceneaux could blossom into a two-way monster as a sophomore.
And transfers LJ Cryer (Baylor) and Damian Dunn (Temple) add offensive juice.
Whether it's enough to unseat Kansas in the Cougars’ Big 12 debut, though, appears iffy.
Other Contenders
Texas Longhorns
After a strong run as interim coach, Rodney Terry was given the top job at Texas. His first offseason started ignominiously – star prospect Ron Holland opted for G-League Ignite instead of Austin, and fellow top 30 recruit AJ Johnson chose the NBL.
Terry rallied, though, securing several key newcomers (Max Abmas, Oral Roberts; Kadin Shedrick, Virginia) while also getting mega-athlete Dillon Mitchell to withdraw from the NBA draft.
Questions remain about Terry’s ability to build his own contender, and Shedrick and Dylan Disu both have foot injuries lingering through the preseason.
Baylor Bears
No questions exist around Scott Drew’s coaching prowess, but Baylor simply must improve defensively. The Bears landed outside of KenPom’s top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year.
A small, offensive-tilted backcourt was largely to blame, and a fully healthy Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua would be a boon to the interior defense.
Still, the Bears will rely heavily on mid-major transfers (RayJ Dennis, Toledo; Jayden Nunn, VCU) and freshmen (Ja'Kobe Walter, Miro Little) in the backcourt, meaning they are no certainty to trend back up to the nation’s elite.
Losing key assistant Jerome Tang may have long-term repercussions, as well.
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU sneaks into the single-digits, odds-wise, and Jamie Dixon hopes to replicate last season’s success even without the electric backcourt of Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh.
Transfers are again vital, with Delaware’s Jameer Nelson Jr., Oklahoma State’s Avery Anderson III and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s Trey Tennyson hoping to fill the vacancies.
An army of versatile wings and bigs led by Emanuel Miller ensure that the Horned Frogs’ floor remains high, though.
Tourney Hopefuls
Kansas State Wildcats
Tang’s new team, Kansas State, made waves last year thanks to the electrifying duo of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.
Tang hopes Tylor Perry (North Texas) and Arthur Kaluma (Creighton) can reasonably approximate that duo, but Kaluma especially is not at the same level.
Plus, versatile forward Nae’Qwan Tomlin is suspended indefinitely following an October disorderly conduct arrest.
Iowa State Cyclones
A trio of stout defensive teams constitute the rest of this tier. First, Iowa State has lacked offensive firepower during T.J. Otzelberger’s first two seasons, but the defense is fierce – and will remain that way with Tamin Lipsey at the point of attack.
Keep an eye on freshman Milan Momcilovic as a potential boost to the Cyclones’ scoring.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech has a new coach (North Texas’ Grant McCasland) and a relatively new roster, but the Red Raiders could make noise.
Pop Isaacs poured in 30 points in a charity exhibition win over Texas A&M – universally considered a top 25 squad.
Texas Tech’s range of outcomes seems wider than the team below (Oklahoma State), and thus, more intriguing as a long shot wager.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been a mainstay near the top of any defensive rankings under Mike Boynton Jr., but he's never been able to find enough scoring.
Long Shots
West Virginia Mountaineers
The offseason was a tumultuous one for West Virginia, parting ways with Hall of Fame coach Bob Huggins due to off-the-court issues.
Jesse Edwards (Syracuse) is a fantastic paint anchor and Kerr Kriisa (Arizona) will be a potent perimeter piece when he returns from a nine-game suspension, but the rest of the roster lacks proven Big 12 contributors.
Interim coach Josh Eilert has his hands full.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Both Cincinnati and BYU offer some upside in their first seasons in the league.
Unfortunately, the Bearcats may not get two-time transfers Aziz Bandaogo (Utah Valley) and Jamille Reynolds (Temple) eligible, sapping their interior depth.
Bandaogo’s situation, in particular, is one to watch – he earned the WAC’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23.
BYU Cougars
The Cougars, meanwhile, are loaded with shooters and size.
Can they find enough shot creation and defense to survive the upgrade from the WCC, where they went just 7-9 last year?
Mark Pope is a tremendous coach, and BYU was young (in terms of D-I experience) last season.
Oklahoma & UCF
Oklahoma and final newcomer UCF form the caboose in terms of odds.
Both have a high-upside returning guard – Milos Uzan for the Sooners, Darius Johnson for the Knights – but the collection of transfers around them seem to lack the upside necessary to make a dark horse run up the Big 12 standings.
Big 12 Betting Recommendations
From a conference futures perspective, it seems hard to envision anyone truly challenging the top two teams.
Self and his Jayhawks have won or shared the league crown in 17 of the last 19 years, and this looks like a strong Kansas edition.
Iowa State or Texas Tech might have the variance necessary to make a run, though, if you’re feeling adventurous.
From a more general sense entering the year, I view Texas Tech and BYU as underrated, “play on” candidates. The Red Raiders have a tremendous new coach and a roster that should fit his defensive vision, while BYU dealt with injury turmoil and youth last year that should be less of an issue this time around.
Texas could be a “fade” candidate if the pieces don’t mesh, while West Virginia has some disaster potential with an interim coach and Kriisa’s suspension – keep a close eye on the Mountaineers.
Baylor could be an Under candidate against the right opponent given its roster shift, though most computer projections have picked up on that as well, so tread lightly.
A final note: come league play, home court advantages are always strong in the Big 12, and that could be exacerbated by the extreme new travel presented by BYU and UCF.
