Sharps got back to their winning ways yesterday, going 2-1 with their Wednesday plays. With only three NBA games on tap Thursday, pro bettors will look to pounce on a stacked college hoops slate.
After analyzing Thursday’s massive 53-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with start times of 7 and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Houston @ Connecticut
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 140 to 136)
Recreational bettors are somewhat torn on this American Conference over/under, but wiseguys have taken a clear side.
The total opened a moderately low 140. Nearly 60% of bets are taking the over, indicating moderate public support. However, the Under is receiving 89% of dollars, signaling massive smart money.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three separate steam moves on the Under, with pro bettors crushing the Under 140, Under 139 and Under 137.5.
The fact that sharps kept hitting the under despite the line falling and getting worse is evidence of supreme wiseguy confidence, maybe due to the fact that Houston is one of the top defensive teams in the nation, allowing only 60.1 points per game.
Hofstra @ College of Charleston
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 147.5 to 144)
Believe it or not, this CAA matchup is the second-most heavily bet game of the night. And both sharps and squares seem to be on the same page when it comes to the over/under.
The total opened at 147.5. Currently 66% of bets and 95% of dollars are taking the under. This combination of public betting and wiseguy money created big liability for the books, forcing them to adjust the total down 3.5 points.
Pro bettors hammered the Under 147 and Under 145.5, triggering a pair of steam moves.
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Denver U
9 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 158.5 to 157.5)
Recreational bettors almost always focus on the marquee matchups that are on TV. Not the sharps. They'll bet on any game, no matter how small, as long as they have an edge.
This obscure Summit Conference game is a perfect example.
The over/under opened at 158.5. Currently 72% of bets are taking the under, but they also account for 93% dollars.
We've seen wiseguys steam this under twice. First they hit the Under 159, then came back again on the Under 157.5.
This "under high total that falls" spot has cashed bigly for the Goodfellas this year. If the total is 155 or higher and falls at least one point, the under has gone 49-17 (74.2%) this season.
