College Basketball Player Props | 3 Picks for David Joplin, Tyrese Samuel & Marcus Domask

College Basketball Player Props | 3 Picks for David Joplin, Tyrese Samuel & Marcus Domask article feature image
Credit:

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Marquette’s David Joplin.

Saturday College Basketball Player Props

Time (ET)Player Prop
3:30 p.m.
3:30 p.m.
6:30 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

I have two picks at 3:30 p.m. ET for my college basketball player props today. We're betting a trio of unders in some big conference tournament matchups. Let's get to it.


The best North Carolina sports betting apps are now live! Learn more and register for the best bonus offers.


Nebraska vs. Illinois

Nebraska Cornhuskers Logo
Saturday, March 16
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Illinois Fighting Illini Logo
Header First Logo

Marcus Domask

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)

Header Trailing Logo

This isn't a number that Domask typically clears. He's made multiple 3-pointers in a game just four times in 20 conference games this season.

Nebraska is a solid defensive team that has held opponents to a 46% effective field goal rate, which is the 12th-best in the country.

I simulated this game 10,000 times to get an exact distribution of the likelihood of Domask's 3-point total today:

3s MadeOdds %
025.2%
137.1%
223.6%
39.8%
4+4.2%

I'm projecting Domask as having a 62% chance of staying under 1.5 3-pointers made today.

Pick: Marcus Domask Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115)

Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for college basketball bettors
The best NCAAB betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

Texas A&M vs. Florida

Texas A&M Aggies Logo
Saturday, March 16
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Florida Gators Logo
Header First Logo

Tyrese Samuel

Under 14.5 Points (-110)

Header Trailing Logo

Texas A&M is a 3-point funnel defense. As a result, it only allows 45% of points against to come from inside the arc, which is one of the lowest rates in the country.

Samuel makes his living inside, so this should be a tough spot for him to clear this number. He had a season-low six points when these teams met back in early February.

I'm projecting Samuel for closer to 13 points with a 61% chance of staying under 14.5. Here are the projections for him:

PointsOverUnder
12.555%45%
13.548%52%
14.539%61%
15.531%69%

Pick: Tyrese Samuel Under 14.5 Points (-110)


Marquette vs. UConn

Marquette Golden Eagles Logo
Saturday, March 16
6:30 p.m. ET
FOX
UConn Huskies Logo
Header First Logo

David Joplin

Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)

Header Trailing Logo

Joplin has cleared this line in four of his last five games but has stayed under this number 64% of the time in conference play. This is a matchup where it should be much tougher for him to clear this number.

UConn is one of the best shooting teams in the country and a very good rebounding team. In fact, the Huskies rank 11th overall in our rebound efficiency metric.

Both of those factors will provide Joplin with fewer rebound chances while also potentially forcing him to give up a few boards.

He also may see fewer minutes tonight, as Marquette could opt to give Ben Gold some more floor time against a UConn team that has more size than the Golden Eagles' first two Big East Tournament opponents. Gold’s minutes would come at the expense of Joplin, as Oso Ighodaro will rarely leave the court tonight.

I’m projecting Joplin closer to 3.8 rebounds with a 66% chance to stay under 4.5

Pick: David Joplin Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)

Everything you need to bet like a PRO!

Eye-popping betting model edges

Sharp action signals for every slate

Player prop picks bursting with value
About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
bet365 Bonus Code TOPACTION: Score $1,000 First Bet Insurance Offer or $200 Bonus for CFB Saturday ImageLegal Online Sports Betting

bet365 Bonus Code TOPACTION: Score $1,000 First Bet Insurance Offer or $200 Bonus for CFB Saturday

Nick Sterling
Nov 2, 2024 UTC