Wednesday brings us another solid college basketball slate, which means it's time to dive into some NCAAB player props.
Both players I'm targeting are high-profile, so if you've been in the weeds of low-major research ahead of March Madness, consider this a palette cleanser.
First, we're going to take a look at Durham, where Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils will look to get right against the Cal Golden Bears after suffering a loss to Clemson.
Then, we'll head to the Big 12, as JT Toppin and the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Without further ado, let's dive into my top two college basketball player props for Cooper Flagg and JT Toppin on Wednesday, Feb. 12.
College Basketball Player Props
- Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 Points
- JT Toppin Over 8 Rebounds
Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 Points
vs. California Golden Bears
Let's break down the Duke game coming up, shall we?
Cooper Flagg is looking to bounce back big time after Duke took a hit from Clemson on the road. The Blue Devils are back at home against Cal, and honestly, things are looking good for them.
Flagg's points prop is probably going to be between 20 and 22 points, and I'm all in for the over.
Here's why I'm confident: When Duke is favored by 20-plus points in ACC games, Flagg usually hits over 21 points. It's happened three out of four times, and he's averaging around 24 points in those games.
Cal's defense in the half-court is not great. I'm not expecting a lot of fast-break points, but even in a slow half-court game, Flagg can thrive.
The Golden Bears give up 0.93 points per possession in the half-court, ranking 293rd in the country. Plus, they struggle with defending and securing offensive boards, so Flagg might snag some easy second-chance points.
After that tough game against Clemson, which was like the Tigers' Super Bowl, Duke's set for a redemption game. The Blue Devils weren't destined to go undefeated right through to the national championship — that's unrealistic.
Sure, the loss to Clemson stings, but it's not the end of the world. It's all about snapping back and making a statement against Cal. I believe they will, and Flagg’s going to shine.
Pick: Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 Points (Play to 22)
JT Toppin Over 8 Rebounds
vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Let's talk about JT Toppin from Texas Tech going up against Arizona State. I've got my eyes on him cashing over eight rebounds.
If you forget about the game in which he got ejected against Houston, he's been pulling down an average of nine rebounds in his last eight Big 12 matchups.
Arizona State isn't exactly killing it on the boards — it ranked 169th in defensive rebounding and 280th in giving up offensive boards to opponents. That gives Toppin a great opportunity to snag a few offensive rebounds, and hitting double-digits in total rebounds seems pretty doable.
Depending on where you look, you might find this rebound number somewhere between 7.5 and 9. If it were up to me, I'd definitely take the over.
It's worth noting that Arizona State makes shooting tough by forcing a lot of contested shots. This matters because it means more rebounding chances, especially on offense.
If the other team’s defense is just letting easy layups or wide-open 3s fly, those rebounding opportunities could slip through your fingers. Well, ASU ranks in the top 60 in shooting efficiency allowed.
But what's really catching my eye is the Sun Devils' rebounding margin during a three-game losing streak: they were -12 against Oklahoma State, -4 against Kansas State and -14 against Arizona. I think Texas Tech can out-rebound them by about 10, with Toppin playing a big role.
I'd back this play up to 9 rebounds, especially if you can snag some plus-money somewhere in that 7.5 to 8.5 range.
Pick: JT Toppin Over 8 Rebounds (Play to 9)
