Winning away from home is never easy in college hoops, but I’m backing a pair of road teams on Tuesday that are well-coached and have caught fire in the dead of winter.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, February 4.
(Here's a parlay if you so choose to take that route.)
The Racers looked like they were a dark-horse candidate in the MVC just three weeks ago. Murray State was off to a 4-2 start in conference play and had impressive wins over Drake and Northern Iowa on the road in back-to-back games.
But then the bottom dropped out.
The Racers have lost five of their last six, while their defense has regressed.
And now this is a revenge spot for the Bulldogs, which isn't when you want to play Drake.
In the past two seasons, Drake has had the opportunity to avenge a regular-season MVC loss on six occasions. The Bulldogs won five of those six games, capturing their wins by an average margin of 14 points per contest.
And despite their plodding style (dead last in tempo), Drake is 3-1 against the spread in its last four games as a single-digit favorite.
First-year head coach Ben McCollum was a D-II coaching legend, and he has his team peaking at the right time.
Pick: Drake -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
USC vs. Northwestern
Winning consistently in Evanston is a herculean task. Welsh-Ryan Arena is both small and ancient, opening in 1952 and seating 7,039.
Northwestern’s high academic standards also make it difficult to assemble a team in the transfer portal era. So, while Big Ten rivals like Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, replenish their rosters with top-tier transfers, one of Northwestern’s portal finds this past cycle was the studious Keenan Fitzmorris.
The 7-footer made academic honor rolls at both Stanford and Stony Brook but averages just 1.5 points per game for the Wildcats.
Chris Collins has overcome these challenges, which have typically included a short bench in recent years. Last spring, he became the first Northwestern head coach to post back-to-back winning seasons in Big Ten play since William Rohr accomplished the feat during the Eisenhower administration.
But Collins’ roster limitations are set to bite him down the stretch this season after Northwestern was hit with a massive blow on the injury front. Collins confirmed on Saturday that Brooks Barnhizer will miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury.
Barnhizer was the only player from a power conference to average 17 points, eight rebounds and four assists per game. He's irreplaceable.
Without its superstar, Northwestern is now drawing a USC team that's turned the corner under Eric Musselman.
In the Trojans' past six games, they’ve upset a pair of nationally ranked opponents in Illinois and Michigan State while winning two league road games in the heartland.
Unlike the Wildcats, USC’s leaders in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks are all transfers. With such a transfer-heavy roster playing under a first-year head coach, it was bound to take time for the Trojans to put it all together.
Bart Torvik generates “Game Score” graphs for every team in America, which provide a visual representation of a team's performance, 0-100, on a game-by-game basis.
This chart is layered with their moving and five-game averages, providing a clear visualization of where a team is trending. USC is clearly on the upswing, while Northwestern is teetering on complete collapse.
Even with Barnhizer, Northwestern sat outside the top 200 in shooting efficiency and defensive rebounding. Despite shooting nearly 40% from 3-point range against Wisconsin, the Wildcats failed to crack 70 points in a six-point home loss.
And most importantly, the Badgers dominated them on the glass, boasting a +9 rebounding margin. That’s exactly how USC and its massive starting lineup (23rd in height) will win this game.
Pick: USC ML +105
