Only seven teams in the country find themselves inside the top 20 in terms of efficiency on both ends of the floor.
I’m targeting games featuring three such teams on Tuesday.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, January 14.
Marquette vs. DePaul
The Blue Demons opened the season 7-0 for the first time in five years. During its hot streak, DePaul was beating up on teams with an average KenPom rating of 277th.
Then reality set in for this downtrodden program.
Since December 4, DePaul is 2-8 both straight up and against the spread. This includes a string of blowout losses. St. John’s boat raced the Demons by 28 points in Queens. Then Villanova embarrassed DePaul on the Main Line, annihilating it by 44 points at the Finneran Pavilion.
During this cold streak, DePaul has cracked the top five in a dubious distinction. According to Evan Miyakawa, among power conference teams that struggle the most when facing above-average opponents, DePaul is the fifth-worst team in the country.
There may not be a clearer example of this in major college basketball than DePaul. The Blue Demons drill bad teams and get run off the floor when they face quality opponents.
Marquette, on the other hand, is a complete team, ranking inside the top 20 in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the floor. The Golden Eagles have a National Player of the Year candidate running the offense in senior Kam Jones, and Shaka Smart has been an ATM on the road since taking over at Marquette.
Dating back to his first season in Milwaukee, Smart has covered 60% of the time on the road.
Additionally, this is an ideal travel spot for Smart’s Golden Eagles. Marquette hasn’t played in a week and this road trip is just 90 minutes down I-94.
What awaits the Golden Eagles is the second-worst home-court advantage in the Big East, per KenPom. Dating back to 2022, DePaul is 4-18-2 ATS as a home 'dog (18.2%). Among qualifying teams (at least five games), that’s last among power conference squads.
I would lay up to 18 points with Smart and the Golden Eagles.
Pick: Marquette -12.5 (Play to -18)
Mississippi State vs. Auburn
The headline here is that Johni Broome is dealing with an ankle injury. The word out of The Plains is that Broome will avoid the knife, but he could be sidelined for weeks with a grade-two sprain.
Chris Jans' team has continually upped its game when facing elite competition. The advanced stat community is obsessed with this team, which tracks with Jans’ commitment and investment in the analytics wing of his coaching staff.
The number crunching has paid off, as the Bulldogs have posted a 6-1 record straight up and a 5-2 mark ATS against KenPom top-75 opponents.
But rather than the spread, I’ll target the total.
State would be wise to slow things down against the Tigers. The loss of Broome is taking a host of high-percentage shots away from the Tigers, which means Bruce Pearl will look to run a bit more than usual and rely on turnovers to spur transition buckets.
State rarely turns the ball over (11.2% of possessions, 2nd) and plays significantly better in half-court dominated games.
Jans will live up to his nickname as “The Dentist” and make this a slow, grueling and uncomfortable experience for Auburn in its first game without its superstar.
Pick: Under 152 (Play to 150)
