Here's a PSA for the Big 12 in 2024-25: stick to the favorites. It’s highly improbable – maybe even impossible – that any team outside of the projected top five wins the Big 12 this season.
Resist the long odds with all your might, and you'll see why in my 2024-25 Big 12 college basketball preview below.
2024-25 Big 12 College Basketball Regular Season Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via BetMGM) |
| Kansas | +240 |
| Houston | +250 |
| Iowa State | +425 |
| Arizona | +550 |
| Baylor | +700 |
| Texas Tech | +2000 |
| BYU | +2500 |
| Cincinnati | +2500 |
| Kansas State | +2500 |
| Arizona State | +10000 |
| TCU | +10000 |
| Colorado | +15000 |
| UCF | +15000 |
| West Virginia | +15000 |
| Oklahoma State | +20000 |
| Utah | +20000 |
Big 12 Favorites
The favorites — Houston and Kansas — are faves for good reason.
Houston & Kansas
Houston won the league last year in its inaugural Big 12 season, and Kansas has won 17 of the past 20 regular season titles (yes…really). You can find both hovering around +250 in markets right now.
Kansas has the big-name talent: Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr. and shiny new transfer toy AJ Storr. And of course, Bill Self, a top-five coach in the nation.
The Jayhawks are deeper than last season and have arguably the best starting five in the country on paper.
But Houston is the better the bet. The Cougars are ranked No. 1 in both KenPom and Bart Torvik this season, and they have the roster to not only be the best team this year, but one of the best teams in recent memory.
All-American guard Jamal Shead is gone, but Kelvin Sampson brings back four starters and is a stone-cold lock to have a top-three defense once again.
Houston is vastly undervalued in national title markets, and it’s still the best bet in the Big 12, despite having the shortest or second-shortest odds.
Big 12 Contenders
The consensus three, four, five in the Big 12 has a real shot at cutting down the regular-season nets. All three rank in KenPom’s top 11 this season (Iowa State over Kansas), and all three will be elite on at least one side of the floor.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Clones, like Houston, are guaranteed to sport one of the best defenses in the country. They’ve ranked first, eighth and fifth the past three seasons in adjusted defensive efficiency.
This also might be T.J. Otzelberger’s most talented team that he’s had in Ames, one that could actually move the needle offensively.
Point guard Tamin Lipsey is an All-American candidate, and fellow guard Keshon Gilbert could be the most underrated player in the league.
You can find ISU at +500 or better; that’s worth a look – especially over Kansas.
Baylor Bears
Baylor will be an elite offensive unit, even with the loss of assistant John Jakus (current FAU head coach). The Bears have ranked sixth, second, eighth and second in adjusted offensive efficiency over the past four seasons.
They have another star freshman in VJ Edgecombe, who could wind up being the best player in the Big 12.
Veteran transfer duo Jeremy Roach (Duke) and Norchad Omier (Miami FL) will ensure the Bears have vast experience to balance out their young talent.
+800 is enticing at FanDuel, but I’m still concerned about the other end of the floor, where Baylor has struggled as of late.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has been one of the best programs in the country the past three years under Tommy Lloyd, although the NCAA Tournament has failed it.
The Cats are once again loaded with talent and should have no problem acclimating to the Big 12.
Still, there’s enough red flags – including the integration of a relatively so-so transfer class – to stay away from them in the Big 12 betting market.
Big 12 Long Shots
The problem with long shots in the Big 12 is this league’s top teams are so elite that it’s almost unfathomable for any program outside the top five to take home the conference title.
Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, & Kansas State
All four of Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati and Kansas State should earn berths to the NCAA Tournament, and all four could even crack the top-20 nationally.
And yet, they pale in comparison to the talent, continuity and coaching combinations at the top of the league.
If you’re really itching to burn some cash, Cincinnati or Texas Tech are worth flyers on anything better than 20/1.
The Bearcats brought almost everyone back from last year and made a perfect add from the transfer portal in Texas forward Dillon Mitchell.
Texas Tech features one of the best coaches in the nation in Grant McCasland, a coach who's won literally wherever he’s been. The Red Raiders got better this offseason, bringing in four transfers highlighted by New Mexico forward JT Toppin, an All-Conference-caliber talent.
BYU is too much of a wildcard to trust. New head coach Kevin Young needs time to adjust to the college game, and he needs his European import Egor Demin to live up to the hype for the Cougars to even crack the league’s top five.
Kansas State just doesn’t have the elite talent the other teams do. The Wildcats are deep and have a lot of high quality players, but none will sniff an All-American team.
To win the Big 12, you need at least one or more players of that caliber.
No Chance
Utah & Colorado
The two Pac-12 defectors might score a couple of eye-opening wins at home thanks to excellent home court advantages, but neither has the talent to win the league.
Both rank in the 80s in KenPom’s preseason rankings. Even vast overperformances would fall far short of a championship.
Arizona State Sun Devils
This team is awful, as evidenced by the 60-point beatdown at the hands of Duke. Yes, it was an exhibition, but that body language — combined with Bobby Hurley’s long record of underperforming his talent — is enough to stay far away from a bet.
West Virginia & Oklahoma State
Both of these teams are candidates to exceed expectations this season thanks to savvy coaching hires.
West Virginia brought in Darian DeVries from Drake, and his sone Tucker will be one of the best players in the conference. Alas, the Mountaineers just don’t have the horses to compete at the top.
Oklahoma State hired Steve Lutz, a coach who's three-for-three on making the NCAA Tournament in one-bid leagues. He has arguably the least talented roster in the conference, but his Pokes will be fun to watch.
TCU Horned Frogs
Jamie Dixon is the man, and he’s done the impossible by making TCU a perennial NCAA Tournament contender.
But his roster is subpar compared to his prior squads.
Only one player returns from last season, meaning Dixon will be scrambling to fit a bunch of new puzzle pieces into a recognizable picture by the time conference play rolls around.
UCF Knights
Johnny Dawkins basically took any player with a checkered past in the transfer portal this offseason, setting up either an inspiring redemption story or a potential train wreck of epic proportions.
The range the Knights could finish in the Big 12 this season is only exceeded by BYU.
There’s no point in trusting your money on that type of team.
