Conference play is kicking off in earnest around the country.
I’ve zeroed in on one pesky underdog from the Big 12 and a dark horse in the A-10 to back on New Year’s Eve.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my New Year's Eve betting card.
West Virginia vs. Kansas
It made sense that the public and the media doubted the Mountaineers coming into the season. Their continuity score from KenPom was 0.0 (356th), which means every piece of this program — including its coaching staff — was working together for the first time.
The talent was there, but surely it wouldn’t gel right away.
Boy was everyone wrong.
The ‘Neers are off to a 9-2 start, complete with outright upsets of Gonzaga and Arizona. Javon Small won WVU the game against the Zags (31 pts, 7 asts) and Tucker DeVries did the heavy lifting against Arizona (26 pts, 6 asts).
Head coach Darian DeVries is a winner, both straight up (.736) and against the spread (.556). And while I respect Allen Fieldhouse, Bill Self has a losing record ATS as a home favorite in the past five seasons (48.8%).
As long as this number is north of 10, I’m taking WVU to hang around.
Pick: West Virginia +12.5 (Play to +10.5)
UMass vs. Saint Joe's
Jill Bodensteiner, Saint Joe’s athletic director, interviewed nine candidates before landing on Billy Lange. Poaching the long-time Philadelphia 76er assistant in 2019 was viewed as a coup.
But the Lange hire required patience and a lot of it. Lange’s early tenure was disastrous, stacking 60 losses in his first three seasons.
But Bodensteiner gave Lange more rope and it’s paying off. Last season, the Hawks won 20+ games for the first time in the post-Phil Martelli era.
Then Erik Reynolds II surprised many by choosing to return for his senior season on City Avenue.
It’s not just the Reynolds Show in West Philly, though, as this year’s Saint Joe's roster feels complete, top to bottom.
Xzayvier Brown averages over 15 points per game as the Hawks’ point guard, and Rasheer Fleming is having a breakout season in the frontcourt. The big from Camden, NJ, has improved significantly in nearly every statistical category and now averages 16.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.
Toss in his exhaustive work on the defensive end (3.5 stocks per game), and the Hawks’ resume begins to make sense. Saint Joe’s has captured impressive non-conference wins over Villanova, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech.
According to Evan Miya, Saint Joe’s features a top-four ranking on the defensive end among A-10 teams (55th overall). This is a significant development because Lange hadn’t figured out how to string together stops until this season. The Hawks’ average national ranking on the defensive end prior to this season was 205th.
Saint Joe’s pursuit of an A-10 title — which would be its first since 2005 — starts on Hawk Hill against UMass.
While the Hawks have been ascending, the opposite is true of UMass, which has been gutted in the transfer portal. Three starters and a boatload of production walked out the door in the offseason to the tune of 40.5 points, 18.9 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game.
The loss of Josh Cohen (USC) and Matt Cross (SMU) from the Minutemen frontcourt is why I love Saint Joe’s laying the points here.
Opponents are killing the Minutemen on the offensive glass, and when UMass has the ball, it can’t get the ball in the hole. The Minutemen’s shooting efficiency is dreadful (327th), but they’ve found some success speeding opponents up.
Saint Joe’s has no problem playing an up-and-down game. In fact, the extra possessions should help it cover this big number at home.
Pick: Saint Joe's -9 (Play to -11.5)
