Saturday NCAAB Predictions from Mike & Tanner in Pick & Roll

Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has college basketball predictions for Saturday.

For this week’s Pick-and-Roll, Tanner is fading Clemson and calling his shot in the America East’s “Maine Event” on Saturday afternoon.

Breese is also starting with a matchup featuring a top-ten squad down in Gainesville before he heads out West for a potential Mountain West Game of the Year between the Rams and Aggies.

Don’t get used to so many high-profile games from our duo, but hopefully, they can run back a 3-1 Saturday for the second straight week.

McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks

North Carolina vs. Clemson

Saturday, Jan 6

12:00pm ET

ESPN2

North Carolina +1.5

Both ShotQuality and EvanMiya’s predictive models make North Carolina a slight road favorite over Clemson on Saturday, and I agree.

The Tar Heels are a legitimate Final Four contender. As our own Stuckey puts it:

I couldn’t agree more. And I hate to say it, but now might be the time to buy Heels futures (National Title, ACC) because I think they smoke Clemson in Clemson on Saturday.

The Heels love to run the floor in transition and score in the post with Armando Bacot, and they have several elite guards to push the pace and dish the ball down low. RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan are studs – specifically Davis, who has been superhuman with his dribble-drive and shot creation.

Previously, I didn’t believe in Elliot Cadeau. He was turning the ball over quite a bit in the early season, and the Heels were running a lot of their offense through a turnover-prone freshman.

But, as most young, highly-touted players do, Cadeau improved. After dishing out six assists to eight turnovers in his first three games, he’s posted a 39:11 ratio since.

Suddenly, Cadeau boasts a 27% assist rate, and North Carolina has a trio of dangerous guards. The Tar Heels have turned into a supernova offense, sneaking up to 11th nationally in efficiency. Did you see how they cooked Tennessee’s elite defense? They dropped 100 points on 75 possessions.

Do you know what Clemson’s biggest issue is? Staying in front of ball-dominant guards.

The Tigers are allowing .89 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, ranking 334th nationally. Joe Girard, Chauncey Wiggins, Chase Hunter and Ian Schiefflin are merely average defenders, all boasting a DBPR below 0.5.

The Tigers don’t even try to defend on the perimeter. They rank 350th in defensive turnover rate and 290th in 3-point rate allowed, playing passive compact defense.

Yet, Clemson’s interior defense hasn’t been sublime (.85 PPP allowed, 305th nationally), and the Tigers' transition defense has been similarly poor (1.29 PPP allowed, 348th).

This bodes very poorly against the Cadeau-Davis-Ryan trio. I think the Heels punk Clemson on Saturday. They might drop 100 again.

Clemson has also been a flamethrowing offense, but I don’t love the matchup.

The Tigers play almost exclusively through PJ Hall in the post, leveraging his versatility to invert the floor and play inside-out.

But Bacot is a rock-solid interior defender, and the Heels rank 30th nationally in post-up PPP allowed. If the Heels hang one-on-one inside with Hall, they can disrupt the flow of Clemson’s offense.

Meanwhile, a good amount of shooting regression is coming for the Tigers. They’re generating 1.17 PPP on catch-and-shoot jumpers, about .16 above the national average. They’re shooting 40% from 3, but ShotQuality projects that number closer to 36% based on the “quality” of attempts.

The Tigers rank sixth in ShotQuality’s Shot Making metric but 185th in their Shot Selection metric. I don’t expect Clemson to make tough shots forever.

It’s hard to keep up with North Carolina’s offense already. But throw in a good schematic matchup and any shooting regression, and I'm betting Clemson goes down on Saturday.

Pick: North Carolina +1.5 | Play to PK

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Maine vs. Vermont

Saturday, Jan 6

2:00pm ET

ESPN+

Maine +8

I’m worried about Vermont’s interior defense.

The Cats rank sub-330th nationally in post-up PPP allowed (.89), and at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.24). They’re allowing a whopping 32 paint points per game, with 46% of opposing buckets being scored on the low block.

Ileri Ayo-Faleye transformed Vermont’s interior defense last season, and he’s still defending well. Unfortunately, Matt Veretto and Nick Fiorillo are getting cooked on the interior. Now that the Cats are running strictly two-big lineups instead of four-guard lineups like last year, we’re seeing some adverse results — opponents can target the weaker rim protector.

Behind this struggling interior defense, Vermont struggled in non-con play. The Cats went a conference-worse 4-9 ATS.

I think the AmEast is more wide-open than ever this year, with John Becker and Co. vulnerable at the top.

Maine is ready to burst through. I’m buying up every Black Bear stock available, including AmEast Title Futures (17-to-1 at BetRivers) and +9 against Vermont in Burlington on Saturday.

Peter Filipovity has transformed the outlook in Orono. I expected he or Kristians Feierbergs would take a big step forward now that they weren’t stuck behind Gedi Juozapaitis, but I didn’t expect anything close to this.

Filipovity is scoring 14 points nightly on 62% true-shooting with a 120 ORtg. He’s dropping 10 paint points per game and dominating as a cutter in Chris Markwood’s motion offense. He’s showcased a surprisingly deep bag, quickly and easily getting to his spots on the interior.

Suddenly, Filipovity is among the AmEast’s highest-usage, most-efficient scorers.

He can take the Black Bear offense to new heights. And he’s perfect for exposing the America East Conference favorites’ interior vulnerabilities. Markwood's ball-screen motion should get Filipovity switched onto Fiorillo or Veretto, and then it’s barbecue chicken.

Moreover, Maine should be able to get the pick-and-roll going. Superstar point guard Kellen Tynes has improved considerably as a PnR initiator, scoring .91 PPP on the sets (73rd percentile) compared to .76 last year (52nd).

Meanwhile, Vermont’s ball-screen defense is shaky. The Cats are a below-average pick-and-roll ball-handler defense, with lead guard Aaron Deloney really struggling in those sets (1.00 PPP allowed, 17th percentile).

Maine has some real schematic advantages, but the key might be 3-point shooting.

When the Bears make 3s, they’re hard to stop. They haven’t been making any yet, but they’re due for positive regression. They’re generating unguarded looks on 53% of their catch-and-shoot opportunities, ranking in the 78th percentile of D-I teams, but generating only .77 PPP on those attempts, ranking in the second percentile.

The Bears are shooting only 29% from 3, but ShotQuality projects that number closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.

Maine should generate good looks against Vermont, keeping it close for 40 minutes. But if the 3s fall, the Bears could win outright.

But make no mistake, Maine is a defense-first team.

Tynes and backcourt mate Jaden Clayton spearhead the conference’s best defense. The Bears can defend ball screens. They can defend cutters. They’re solid in isolation and against mid-range shots. They excel at protecting the rim, including against post-up sets.

In this matchup, two things stand out.

We know what Vermont is. The Cats are a perimeter-based, five-out, shoot-first offense. They run ball screens on the perimeter, pass the rock around the horn, and hunt for calculated 3s. When the 3 isn’t there, they look for a short-roll rim-running opportunity.

Specifically, Vermont takes the third-most off-the-dribble 3s of any college basketball team. They also use the pick-and-roll roll-man at a top-50 rate.

Unfortunately for the Cats, and as mentioned, Maine defends everything. The Bears rank 30th nationally in catch-and-shoot 3-pointer PPP allowed (.97) and 25th in roll-man PPP allowed (.74).

Tynes, Clayton and glue-guy Ja’Shonte Wright-McLeish are swarming perimeter defenders who can hold up against Vermont's backcourt. Filipovity and Feierbergs can defend at all three levels, perfect for neutralizing stretch big man Matt Veretto. And Manhattan transfer Adam Cissee has been a savant defending roll-men, perfect for battling with Ayo-Faleye.

Maine won’t force its usual number of turnovers against a mistake-free Vermont ball-handling team. But I think the Bears can score and defend possession-for-possession with Vermont. And considering both teams play at such a slow pace, there won’t be many possessions for the Cats to pull away by double-digits — unless the Cats go thermonuclear from deep while Maine's shooting woes continue, in which case I'll have to tip my cap and move on.

Finally, the situational spot is also worth mentioning.

Maine is coming off three straight tough losses, including two to KenPom top-100 teams (UCF, Minnesota) and one without Tynes (FIU). It’s your classic buy-low, bounce-back spot.

Conversely, Vermont is off a miraculous win against Brown, failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites but winning outright thanks to a miraculous TJ Long triple – something he’s becoming known for in Burlington.

It’s a good time for a letdown game off that emotional victory.

Coach Markwood has transformed the Black Bears in just over one year, revitalizing a lifeless program. On Saturday, he establishes Maine as a legitimate AmEast contender in a good matchup against a vulnerable Vermont squad.

Pick: Maine +8 | Play to +7

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Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks

Kentucky vs. Florida

Saturday, Jan 6

12:30pm ET

ESPN

Florida +1

I was very bullish on Florida in the preseason, and I’m even more encouraged by what I’ve seen.

The Gators have four capable guards averaging 11 or more per night.

Zyon Pullin is coming into his own. In his last three games, the UC Riverside transfer has averaged 17/5/4 on 59% shooting.

And speaking of portal gets, Tyrese Samuel is in the running for the best transfer addition to any frontcourt. The former Seton Hall Pirate has been uber-efficient on the offensive end, formidable in the paint and a reliable rebounder, allowing Todd Golden to play four guards for long stretches. He’s invaluable to the Gators and is playing at a very high level.

But why step in front of this Kentucky train that's playing its best basketball in years under Coach Cal?

Well, it comes down to rebounding.

Here’s a nugget from Kyle Tucker at The Athletic: “Kentucky went from No. 1 in offensive rebound percentage and No. 2 in rebound margin last season to 232nd and 176th in those categories this season.”

And it’s not just high majors pushing the Cats around on the glass. Illinois State finished with an astounding 24 offensive boards against Kentucky. That’s a major red flag.

Between Samuel and a healthy Micah Handlogten, Florida can score in the 80s against Kentucky with enough second-chance opportunities. The Samuel-Handlogten combo could bother Tre Mitchell; he's the only reason Kentucky hasn’t been dominated more on the glass.

I also love targeting a play or two at the O’Dome because it can still provide an intimidating home-court advantage when paired with a quality UF squad. With a full deck — namely Colin Castleton — Florida creamed No. 2 Tennessee at home last season, and I think the Gators have the goods to keep the home faithful on their feet in this game.

I also consider their neutral site performance against Baylor — another top-five offense — an encouraging sign. The Gators scored 91 points in regulation and flirted with an outright upset.

If they can flex their muscles on the glass, they’ll score a season-defining win over the Kiddy Cats.

Pick: Florida +1 | Play to -3

Utah State vs. Colorado State

Saturday, Jan 6

9:00pm ET

MW Network

Utah State -1.5

The Aggies have been one of the top-performing home teams at the window in college basketball in the past five and a half years. Utah State has cashed tickets at a 60.6% clip when playing at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum since 2018.

Now, they’re catching a highly respected national opponent at home in a game going off as a pick.

But the reason for my wager goes beyond the venue.

The Aggies are a well-rounded, well-coached outfit. Utah State is top-60 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. The Aggies generate great shots inside the 3-point arc and, as a result, rank 10th nationally in 2-point shooting.

A big reason why is Great Osobor.

The British import went from a rotational player at Montana State to a star at Utah State in a year. Osobor is averaging 18/10 and has become a force on the offensive glass. He’s been the Aggies' stabilizing force, but the Aggies are also in line for a positive shooting regression.

Danny Sprinkle’s team is shooting 29.4% from deep, with down-shooting seasons from Ian Martinez and Darius Brown II. The team’s 2-for-21 3-point performance against San Francisco still resulted in a Quad 1 win but shows how much room they have to grow if they pull out of this shooting funk.

On the other side is Colorado State, which is undoubtedly excellent on the offensive end but leaves much to be desired in the rebounding department. The Rams can’t corral an offensive board to save their life (312th nationally), and I suspect Osobor eats against a lineup that doesn’t feature anyone over 6-foot-8.

The Rams aren’t disruptive on the defensive end and don’t get second-chance buckets, so they have a single path to victory — continue to run hot from the field and get to the line.

In their most recent win over New Mexico, the Rams were aided by 18 points at the foul line, but even a ton of opportunities at the charity stripe couldn’t save them in their lone loss to Saint Mary’s. The Gaels slowed the pace and forced the Rams to knock down contested shots.

That 64-61 defeat provided the blueprint for defeating Colorado State. I think we’ll see something similar from Utah State, and I would consider an additional play on the Under if this total closes in the 148-149 range.

Pick: Utah State -1.5 | Play to -2