One of my favorite traditions in college hoops is taking the MAC Tournament winner to win an NCAA Tournament game.
That rings particularly true this year. The conference is very top heavy, with four teams from the state of Ohio expected to make a push to win the league.
Lately, Toledo, Kent State, Ohio or Akron has taken the crown. Will that remain the case, or is a surprise in the works? Here's my 2024-25 MAC college basketball betting preview.
2024-25 MAC Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via BetMGM) |
| Ohio | +200 |
| Toledo | +350 |
| Kent State | +400 |
| Akron | +400 |
| Bowling Green | +1400 |
| Miami (OH) | +1600 |
| Ball State | +2000 |
| Eastern Michigan | +3000 |
| Central Michigan | +3000 |
| Northern Illinois | +5000 |
| Western Michigan | +5000 |
| Buffalo | +8000 |
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Top MAC Dogs
Ohio Bobcats
The age-old tale of "guards win college basketball games" is why the Ohio Bobcats are the favorite to win the MAC.
The Bobcats return super senior Shereef Mitchell and a healthy AJ Brown, and brought in Iowa State transfer Jackson Paveletzke.
That's a trio of All-Conference-caliber guards. They each should make one another better, especially since they attack in different ways — Mitchell is a playmaker and Brown is a microwave scorer with length.
I’m particularly interested in Paveletzke. While he didn't put up numbers at Iowa State, that was a byproduct of circumstance — since the Cyclones had three or four guards above him.
All you have to do is look back one year and see what Paveletzke did at Wofford, where averaged 15 points per game. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Paveletzke became the top mid-major transfer in college hoops.
Another area of strength for the Bobcats is their interior. They return a pair of starters — AJ Clayton and Aidan Hadaway — who fit perfectly alongside bunch of guards who can put pressure on the rim. That will ultimately lead to clean looks from 3.
My only concern about the Bobcats is how they'll fare against bigger teams like Akron. It's unknown if the smaller, versatile bigs will hold up defensively against bruising frontcourts.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Does Kent State have a clear best player? Perhaps not, but it has a ton of talent from top to bottom and a proven winner in coach Rob Senderoff.
The Golden Flashes boast a very veteran-laden roster with seven seniors, including returning leading scorer Jalen Sullinger, who might not factor into this year's plans (a redshirt year is a possibility).
One thing Kent State lacked a season ago is an offensive connector to feature the scorers.
That's why Saint Louis import Cian Medley could be an integral piece of this offense, as he'll look to involve scorers like Marquis Barnett and Morgan Safford.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo has a stranglehold on MAC regular season titles. It almost doesn't matter who the Rockets lose because they regularly see their top few scorers depart and they still win the league.
Tod Kowalczyk has led Toledo to four straight regular season titles and has a real chance to make it five in a row in 2025.
The Rockets lost several huge pieces from last year's title-winning team — Ra'Heim Moss, Tyler Cochran and Dante Maddox Jr. each transferred to high-major schools.
The trio of departed Rocket guards combined for 44 points per game, but the MAC Coach K is more than equipped to deal with the losses.
The Rockets have another duo of sophomore forward Javan Simmons and guard Sonny Wilson waiting in the wings.
Simmons approached the freshman wall in March, but posting 12 points and five rebounds per night isn't too shabby for a guy with a high upside.
The one piece Toledo needs to reach another conference title is Wilson, who poured in eight points per game as the fourth backcourt option on a guard-rich roster last season.
It's Wilson's turn to run the offense, but he'll get help from versatile wing Isaiah Adams (Buffalo) and scoring guard Seth Hubbard (Western Michigan).
Another name to watch for who very few know is D-II transfer Colin O'Rourke. Remember when Kowalcyzk brought in a little-known D-II sharpshooting forward named JT Shumate? Well, O'Rourke is this year's version of Shumate, as he'll have a chance to start right away.
The key, as always, is defense, which failed the Rockets in the past couple of years. Posting defensive efficiency numbers of 255 and 295 in the past two seasons is a far cry from their mediocre 160th ranking in 2022.
If they can get back in the 160-180 range, it'll be huge for them.
Akron Zips
The last true contender of the bunch is last year's MAC representative in the NCAA Tournament, the Akron Zips.
Things will appear different for John Groce, as Enrique Freeman and three other starters depart.
Incoming forwards Josiah Harris and James Okonkwo should play huge roles in the hunt to replace Freeman's production.
Harris is the more offensive-oriented player, as he's coming off a year in which averaged five points and four rebounds per game — while shooting 32% from 3 — in the Big 12.
Meanwhile, Okonkwo is a defensive dynamo.
The Zips' success likely boils down to their guards. They brought in two newcomers in the backcourt, Isaiah Gray from Cornell and West Virginia import Seth Wilson.
My biggest concern about Akron is its lack of shooting. It doesn't have someone like Freeman to bail it out this year, and none of the projected starters are historically good shooters.
Gray isn't a shooter, Harris is a decent shooter and Wilson hasn't played enough to really know.
It'll be interesting to see how the Zips fare, but their talent puts them in the contender range.
Second Tier
Ball State Cardinals
If you asked me about four months ago, I would've told you Ball State is the sleeper pick in the league.
Since then, losing guards Jalin Anderson and Davion Bailey changed the outlook. That pair left for Incarnate Word, and leading scorer Basheer Jihad departed for Arizona State.
The good news is former All-MAC selection Payton Sparks returns after a brief stint at Indiana. He averaged 13 points in both seasons he played in Muncie, so he should form a dynamic interior attack next to Mickey Pearson Jr.
The frontcourt is strong, but why am I lower on Ball State? I don’t know if the guards are good enough.
I like some of the individual pieces Ball State brought in — Jeremiah Hernandez averaged 17 points per game at Southern Indiana, Joey Hart was recruited to Kentucky and Juanse Gorosito is a solid player — but the problem is none are point guards — or at least none have consistently run the point guard spot at this level.
Central Michigan Chippewas
The Chippewas lost six of their top seven scorers from a season ago. The only returning scorer of the bunch is Anthony Pritchard, who led the team with 12.8 points per game.
Beyond him, Central Michigan will look for scoring from other sources, namely JUCO transfer Damarion Bonds and Jakobi Heady from Bethune-Cookman.
Tony Barbee led Central Michigan to an impressive 18-win season in his third year in Mount Pleasant.
Can Barbee parlay the success into another strong campaign? I'm skeptical.
The Chippewas' offensive and defensive efficiency splits make me wonder if they have another good season in the works, or if last year was the aberration.
They ranked a ghastly 328th in offensive efficiency and a strong 149th in defensive efficiency. When the split between offensive and defensive efficiency is that drastic, I really get concerned.
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Bowling Green Falcons
The Falcons surprisingly won 20 games in Todd Simon’s first year on campus, largely thanks to contributions from Marcus Hill, Jason Spurgin and Rashaun Agee.
Just a year later, and all three are gone; Agee and Hill went the portal route, while Spurgin’s college career is done.
I can find some sneaky upside with Bowling Green due to the potential impact of some of its newcomers. High-major transfer Youssef Khayat, Wilguens Jr. Exacte and Braelon Green could be huge adds.
Khayat faced some tough years at Michigan, as the coaching staff under Juwan Howard never unleashed him. With a coach who knows how to unlock his skills, Khayat could be a stalwart for the Falcons.
Khayat and D-II transfer Marcus Johnson provide much-needed shooting that the Falcons lacked last year beyond Spurgin. The team shot just 29% from 3 last year, which isn’t getting the job done nowadays in the sport.
Another guy who should aid in improving the shooting is intra-conference transfer Derrick Butler from Central Michigan.
Another major problem last year was defense. Without a true lockdown defender, the Falcons were among the worst in the MAC. Exacte is exactly the piece Bowling Green needed, with his versatility allowing him to defend guards or bigs.
I’m more interested in betting on Bowling Green in individual games with favorable matchups. It isn't in the bottom tier of the league, but the odds might put it near the bottom.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
The RedHawks haven’t found their stride under Travis Steele just yet, but they improved from 12 to 15 wins in his second season at the helm.
Is another gradual improvement coming? I could see it.
Nothing about the roster induces a lot of "wows," though. The addition of former four-star recruit Kam Craft could be a huge piece for Miami (OH) next to its best returnee, Eian Elmer.
Steele could really use a huge sophomore leap from guards Mekhi Cooper and Evan Ipsaro. Neither is new to playing big minutes, which is a good thing since they got a taste of college hoops as freshmen.
Since Miami (OH) didn't go after many guards in the portal, it's paramount that Cooper and Ipsaro improve.
That's why I have Miami (OH) in this segment of teams instead of the bottom tier.
Stay Far, Far Away
Northern Illinois Huskies
It’s been a tough go for Northern Illinois head coach Rashon Burno. The Huskies won just 11 games last year and have to replace their top five scorers.
The biggest loss is arguably Xavier Amos — who went to Wisconsin — while Zarique Nutter, David Coit and high-upside big Yanic Konan Niederhauser left.
Losing a trio of All-MAC-caliber players complicates matters in multiple ways.
How does Northern Illinois score in big moments? Perhaps Joe Munden Jr. (Fairleigh Dickinson) or James Dent (Western Illinois) emerge, but both feel more like contributing pieces instead of go-to players.
I’ll definitely be looking for opportunities to fade Northern Illinois during the season, as it wouldn’t surprise me if it finished last in the conference.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls offered very little excitement in George Halcovage's inaugural season.
Year two doesn’t look very promising either, as Buffalo brought in just two transfers — Tyson Dunn from the Canadian college ranks and Noah Batchelor, a former highly-touted recruit at Maryland.
Will Buffalo be better? Well, it's hard to be worse, so even the slightest improvement is a welcome sight for Bulls fans.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
One of the yearly traditions I’m starting to notice is Eastern Michigan adding a couple of super talented players each offseason who will average 15+ points per game.
That's a good thing, right? Well, not exactly if the player shoots below 40% from the field and the rest of the team is mediocre.
Three years ago it was Noah Farrakhan, two years ago it was Emoni Bates, and last year it was Tyson Acuff.
With Acuff transferring to Rutgers, it opens the door for DePaul import Jalen Terry to be the inefficient shot maker.
If you’re a fan of empty calorie stats, then Eastern Michigan is the team for you. But I'd recommend avoiding betting on Eastern Michigan until we see if anything has changed.
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan is another program that's struggled in recent times, with its last winning season coming in 2018.
I can't see that coming to an end this year, especially with Hubbard and B. Artis White transferring out.
The Broncos will need JUCO import Chansey Willis Jr., JaVaughn Hannah and Pacific transfer Donovan Williams to make up for their two departed guards.
That feels like a lot to ask, so I'm expecting another down year for Dwayne Stephens' squad.
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MAC Predictions & Futures
I'm eyeing a few bets here.
The best overall bet is Ohio at +200. I know betting the favorite is boring, but Ohio is definitely the team with the highest upside in the league, especially with its elite guard play.
The Bobcats should be favorites of around +140 or less in my eyes, so I see plenty of value on them.
The best long shot on the board is Bowling Green at 14/1. Coach Simon proved he can put together a mostly new team and bring them into conference contention very quickly.
Even with injuries and other rough circumstances, Bowling Green had a successful campaign in 2023-24.
The Falcons have the best chance of crashing the the top four in 2024-25, so I'll take a shot on the long odds.
