After both Florida Atlantic and San Diego State made the Final Four, and the Aztecs came within 40 minutes of a national title, 2022 was considered the year of the mid-major in college basketball.
The Owls return almost all of their production from that Cinderella run that nearly ended in the opening round and eventually ended in them nearly reaching the title game.
The Aztecs have considerably more to replace this year from a production perspective, but the program has been one of the top models of mid-major consistency.
Because of the transfer portal, the gap between the top teams and the mid-majors has never been smaller. Parity among the top contenders is likely to be high once again, and that leaves the door open for these mid-majors to post some real surprises in the 2023-24 season.
Here's my top 10 mid-major programs entering the new campaign.
Gonzaga is not included here given its program pedigree.
10. Colorado State Rams (Mountain West)
Colorado State went into last season with high expectations of returning to the NCAA tournament, even after losing David Roddy to the NBA. The squad was wrecked by injuries, but I'm a believer in this coaching staff — led by Niko Medved — and Isaiah Stevens is a top-five point guard in America.
Stevens and Jalen Lake only played 25 games each last year (missed eight) and the Rams weren't able to be as elite offensively without them.
There's real questions about how many stops this defense will get, but the three-man offensive trio of Stevens, Lake and Patrick Cartier in Medved's motion scheme has the potential to score a ton of points on anyone.
There's two key players that need to show improvement in order for the Rams to return to the tournament this year.
The first is Colorado transfer Nique Clifford, who adds defensive acumen and athleticism to this group. The perimeter defense had a lot of holes last year, and Clifford can certainly help in that area.
The other player is sophomore Taviontae Jackson, who showed flashes as a freshman, grades out as a solid two-way talent and could take a year two leap in the program.
The Rams have more upside than any mid-MWC teams because of Medved's offense.
9. New Mexico Lobos (Mountain West)
Another year of Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House in The Pit. If you like an offense that loves to run in transition and shoot a lot of pull-up 2s, then the Lobos are your team.
New Mexico's ceiling is limited by Mashburn and House, two high-usage guards that aren't particularly efficient overall. Both have been in this program long enough that expecting a big leap seems unlikely at this point.
Mashburn is a pure scorer who's a minus defender, and I'm not that high on the talent surrounding this duo.
Remember, last year, the Lobos started 14-0 overall and finished just 8-10 in the Mountain West.
The main reason for the poor finish to the year was their lack of stops. The defense fell off a cliff in the second half, and Iona transfer Nelly Junior Joseph is the biggest chance the unit has of taking a real step forward this year.
Morris Udeze was an excellent scorer and rebounder, but he offered little-to-no rim protection. If Nelly really improves the defense, the Lobos could be a tournament team.
I'm more skeptical than most, though.
8. St. Bonaventure Bonnies (Atlantic 10)
The Atlantic 10 could be a one-bid league for the second consecutive year, but I need a spot for the most intriguing team in the conference.
The Bonnies finished under .500 last year after the entire roster left following their NIT run in 2021-22.
Mark Schmidt stayed in western New York and now the roster looks considerably improved this season. Even though they finished outside the top 200 last year in KenPom, the Bonnies could be one of the most improved teams in the country.
Charles Pride is the major transfer addition from Bryant, and his ability to score the ball and create his own shot should help an offense that couldn't put up enough points last year.
There's a lot of returning continuity for this roster, too, including point guard Kyrell Luc and the rest of the backcourt.
The combination of young returning talent and solid portal additions should have the Bonnies in the mix for a tourney berth.
The Bonnies will make a run at winning this wide-open A-10, which they have the third-best odds to win at +600.
7. Dayton Flyers (Atlantic 10)
If you're looking for a post-hype buy spot, the Dayton Flyers are probably the team for you.
Dayton was the best team in the Atlantic 10 entering last season and that never really materialized. The Flyers began the season in the top 30 in KenPom and quickly faded to finish outside the top 75.
KenPom ranks them 69th entering this season, but there's a ton of talent here. Malachi Smith and Koby Brea both missed a ton of time last season due to injuries, and a healthier season from them would go a long way towards Dayton winning the A-10.
Most importantly for the Flyers was the return of their best player. DaRon Holmes II tested the NBA draft waters and opted to come back to school to improve his all-around game.
As a result, Dayton has the two best players in the conference, per EvanMiya.com.
6. Yale Bulldogs (Ivy League)
Princeton was one of the top Cinderellas of March Madness last year, and Yale will look to replicate that tournament success as the clear best team in the Ivy League this season.
The two best players in the league — Penn's Jordan Dingle and Princeton's Tosan Evbuomwan — have departed.
Yale was the best overall team in the Ivy last year — it won the regular season but then lost in the conference tourney final to Princeton in a road game.
The Bulldogs return almost all of their offensive production and have shooters that can space the floor and bother teams that might be more physical on the interior than they are.
Yale beat Vermont last season and stayed within 10 against Kentucky.
There are questions about the Bulldogs at center, but the returning production from Bez Mbeng, August Mahoney, Matt Knowling and John Poulakidas gives them a very high floor.
5. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West)
Boise State had such reliable point guard play for the last three years thanks to Marcus Shaver Jr., so his departure will be difficult to replace for Leon Rice's squad.
Boise State is traditionally a football school, but the basketball program has clearly surpassed it in year-to-year consistency after making consecutive NCAA tournament appearances for the first time ever.
I thought Boise would take a real step back last year, but Rice deserves a lot of credit for his staff's ability to develop talent and improve the roster from within.
Tyson Degenhart emerged as a freshman sharp shooter in 2021-22, but his leap into more of an all-around scorer was impressive down the stretch run in 2022-23.
The Broncos' defense wasn't nearly as good last season, and there are perimeter athleticism questions that remain, but the offense improved considerably as the season progressed and now has a lot of options to turn to this year.
O'Mar Stanley and Chibuzo Agbo are the two key pieces to join Max Rice and Degenhart to spark the team's production. Both are solid two-way forwards that will help keep the Broncos excellent on the defensive glass.
Roddie Anderson III was a high-volume scorer and creator at UC San Diego, and if he can improve as a sophomore, he's the Shaver replacement. Anderson determines the Broncos' ceiling, but the floor is pretty high for Boise right now.
The depth could be alarming if more transfers don't emerge.
4. Florida Atlantic Owls (American)
If you look at returning production, Florida Atlantic is essentially running it back. Only four teams in the country return more production than Dusty May's Owls, and it's not a surprise to see a lot of media ranking them in the top-10 nationally.
Preseason media polls often fall victim to recency bias, and you don't have to look too far in the past to find a good but not great team that started the season too high.
After all, 2021-22 9-seed North Carolina began last season No. 1 in the preseason polls because it made the championship game and returned all of its production. The Heels ended up missing the NCAA tournament.
It's more likely that this core of FAU players has already made the leap together as a group. Given the age of their squad, it's more likely that the group regresses a bit and isn't as good as their year-end 17 KenPom rank would suggest.
FAU is likely to be a tournament team, but its ceiling may be capped. The Owls are probably better than Memphis today, but by year's end, Memphis will sort out its talent and will be the superior team in the American.
Ask yourself this: Where would FAU be ranked this preseason if Memphis won that coin-flip game in the first round? The Owls' expected ShotQuality record was 26-11.
3. San Diego State Aztecs (Mountain West)
The Mountain West should once again be one of the most fun leagues in the country from top-to-bottom, and the Aztecs remain the standard bearer in this league for me.
Using a combination of the transfer portal and developing talent internally is the correct way to build in modern college basketball, and Brian Dutcher is doing just that. If you build with too many transfers, you end up with a low-ceiling roster full of maxed-out players and your roster stagnates.
The Aztecs are going to look a lot different this year. The half-court offense was borderline unwatchable at times in the past few seasons, with a lot of dribbling around and a lack of shot-making.
The new-look Aztecs will space the floor, shoot a lot of 3s and utilize bigs who can shoot from the perimeter.
The losses are notable: Nathan Mensah, Matt Bradley, Adam Seiko, Aguek Arop and Keshad Johnson. But Reese Dixon-Waters was the Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year at USC, and while his shooting numbers fell off a cliff last year, he's a dynamic scorer to fill the backcourt with another option.
Micah Parrish and Jaedon LeDee are elite multi-position defenders, and this SDSU squad will be considerably more versatile than the bruiser ball that last year's squad played.
Don't overreact to the lost production, although elite rim protection will be a question for this team without Mensah.
2. Memphis Tigers (American)
Memphis has to replace Kendric Davis and a lot of returning production lost from last year's roster, which finished in the top 20 in KenPom efficiency. Memphis returns just nine percent of its minutes (bottom 20 in the entire country).
Once again, Penny Hardaway has gone to the transfer portal to bring in an almost entirely new roster. Only McNeese State and St. John's hit the portal harder than Hardaway.
The Tigers clearly target length and athleticism in the portal, and it's why the Tigers have been consistently elite from a defensive perspective throughout Hardaway's time in Memphis.
The defense slipped a little last year, but the real difference for Memphis was Davis' elite ball handling, which helped cut down the turnover rate. With his absence, there's a chance that the turnover rate spikes once again this year.
Mikey Williams was expected to be a key piece for the Tigers, but he's facing a December trial and will not be with the team.
The Tigers assembled a cast of guys from other programs — Alabama's Jahvon Quinerly feels like a perfect Memphis chaos guard — including Caleb Mills from FSU and David Jones from St. John's.
Things may look ugly for Hardaway and Memphis early, but there's enough talent to be the best team on this list if the Tigers are at their best.
1. Saint Mary's Gaels (WCC)
It's probably a surprise to not see Florida Atlantic here, but let's not forget that FAU was an eight-seed in the NCAA tournament and Saint Mary's earned a five-seed for a reason. We cannot overreact to a small sample of high variance tournament games.
There's production to replace in Moraga with the departures of Logan Johnson and Kyle Bowen, but there's few coaches with a more respected track record than Randy Bennett.
The Gaels also have more upside to reach and stay at that top-15 level nationally. The Gaels could get a year two leap from Aidan Mahaney in the backcourt. He had his ups and downs as a freshman last season, but he could make a major jump.
The Gaels have an elite defensive drop scheme that forces teams off the 3-point line, and Mitchell Saxen is an elite rim protector.
The Gaels added a near-top-100 prospect in Jordan Ross to come off the bench and potentially partner with Mahaney in the backcourt as the season progresses.
It's fair to expect the defense to take a small step back because of how elite Bowen and Johnson were at that end last year. But this team has a higher offensive ceiling as Mahaney develops.
Watch out for the Gaels in March.
