The long wait is finally over. March Madness is here!
While millions of Americans are busy filling out their brackets, wiseguys have have stayed glued to postseason betting lines. With recreational money flooding the market, sharps know this time of year marks the perfect storm for capitalizing on public bias and going contrarian.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 14-game postseason slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Cornell @ Robert Morris
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Robert Morris (moved from +1 to -1.5)
This CIT first round matchup is flying completely under the radar. Just the way wiseguys like it.
Cornell (15-15) opened as a short, one-point favorite. Currently 60% of bets and 90% of dollars are coming on Robert Morris (17-6). This heavy one-sided action has pushed the line bigly toward Robbie Mo, flipping it from a short dog to a short favorite (+1 to -1.5).
On the surface, this looks like both a public and sharp play on the Colonials, but we've only tracked 415 bets on the game. In other words, this is all wiseguy action from sharps with an edge. There is no "public" on this little known matchup.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on Robert Morris, with sharps hammering RMU twice at +1 and again at a pick'em. We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Cornell.
An added bonus for sharps sweating RMU: this is a true home game for the Colonials. They've gone 12-3 straight up on their home court this season. As a result, wiseguys late to the party might be going RMU moneyline (-125) instead of laying the -1.5.
Campbell @ UNC Greensboro
7 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 142 to 144)
Sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are united on this NIT first round over/under.
The total opened at 142. Currently, 69% of bets and more than 90% of dollars are taking the over. This lopsided combination of casual and smart money created a big liability for the sportsbooks, forcing them to adjust the total up to 144 in order to entice under buyback and limit their risk.
We noticed two steam moves on the over, with pro players hammering the over at 142 and again at 143. The fact that sharps kept hitting the over even though the line rose signals elevated wiseguy confidence in a high-scoring game.
Sharps are keeping a close eye on NIT overs, hoping that the new rule changes (such as resetting shot clocks to 20 seconds after an offensive rebound) lead to more possessions and higher scoring than usual.
Temple vs. Belmont
9:10 p.m. ET | TruTV
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 155.5 to 155)
In the most heavily bet game of the night, casual bettors don't know which side of the total to take, but wiseguys have made a clear decision.
This East Region First Four matchup of 11-seeds opened with a total of 155.5. Average Joes see Belmont's high octane offense (87.4 points per game, 2nd-best in the nation) and want to bet the over. But they're nervous because the total is so high.
Currently, 53% of bets are taking the under, indicating a slight public lean. However, the under is also receiving more than 75% of dollars, signaling heavy smart money from professional bettors.
As soon as the line opened, Goodfellas immediately crushed the under 155.5, triggering a market-wide steam move that dropped the total down to 154.5. It has since leveled out at 155.
This spot has been incredibly profitable for sharp under bettors over the years. Due to the neutral courts and added pressure of a one-and-done playoff game, unders have hit at a 62.2% clip in play-in games since 2005. If the total is 130 or higher, that rises to 72%.
