Wiseguys never enter a day saying, "I'm going to bet all spreads today," or "I'm only hitting over/unders." Instead, they let the board speak to them. Sharps do their homework, compare their internal numbers to the odds posted by the sportsbooks and then get down on games in which they've located a big discrepancy or edge.
After analyzing Tuesday's 22-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with games starting at 7 p.m. ET and 8:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 130.5 to 134.5)
In the most heavily bet game of the night, sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are on completely different sides of this marquee Big Ten showdown.
Michigan State are Wisconsin are known for their stifling defenses, with the Spartans allowing only 67 ppg and the Badgers allowing just 61 ppg. As a result, Average Joes see an easy under.
This total opened at 130.5. Currently 71% of bets are taking the under, yet the line has risen to 134.5. Why would the oddsmakers jack up the total to make it easier for public bettors to cash their under?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over. Wiseguys hammered the Over 130.5 once, Over 131 twice and then came back a fourth time on the Over 131.5.
This influx of big money from respected players forced the oddsmakers to adjust the total all the way up to 134.5. We haven't seen a single conflicting Under move (or buyback).
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 158 to 159.5)
Goodfellas aren't just eyeing the big games on Tuesday night. They're also getting down on this obscure MAC over/under as well.
This total opened at 158. Average Joes see two high-scoring offenses and a high total. As a result, they're torn on which side of the total to take.
But sharps have made a clear decision.
The Over is only getting 50% of bets but a whopping 84% of dollars, indicating heavy smart money.
We've also noticed a trio of steam moves on the over, with wiseguys hammering the Over 158 twice and again at 159.5.
Michigan @ Penn State
8:30 p.m. ET | BTN
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 126 to 128.5)
Recreational bettors are psychologically biased toward betting Overs. Why? Because it's fun to watch a high-scoring, action-packed game and cash in the end. No one wants to sweat an Under and root for blocked shots, bricks and shot clock violations.
Books know this public tendency and will shade lines accordingly, forcing casual bettors to take inflated, overpriced numbers. As a result, wiseguys tend to focus on unders because they have more value.
In the rare occasion that recreational bettors hammer an under, it creates unique value for sharps to hit a contrarian over.
That's exactly what we're seeing in this Big Ten showdown.
The total opened at a low 126. With Michigan allowing only 57 ppg, more than 60% of bets are taking the under. However, despite this public under betting, the total has risen to 128.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the over.
Pro bettors crushed the Over 128 twice and then hit the Over 128.5, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves.
