Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Michigan-Penn State over but losing both the MSU-Wisconsin over and CMU-BGSU over. No time lament tough losses. Sharps are always onto the next.
After analyzing Wednesday's stacked 58-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with start times of 7, 8:30 and 10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
SMU @ Temple
7 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Sharp angle: SMU (moved from +5 to +4.5)
We're seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement in this under-the-radar American conference showdown.
Temple boasts an impressive 17-7 record while SMU sits at 12-11. As a result, the public has no worries about laying a short spread on the home favorite with the superior record. But not the wiseguys.
This line opened at Temple -5. Despite nearly 80% of bets laying the points, the Owls have fallen from -5 to -4.5.
What caused this fishy line movement? As always, follow the money.
The Mustangs are getting only 22% of bets but 52% of dollars, signaling heavy smart money in their favor.
Mississippi @ Auburn
8:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 156 to 151.5)
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are largely on the same side of this SEC over/under.
The total opened at 156. Currently 66% of bets but 94% of dollars are taking the under. This combination of heavy public and wiseguy money forced oddsmakers to adjust the line all the way down to 151.5.
We've also tracked two notable steam moves on the under. Professional players hammered the Under 154.5 and then came back and got down hard on the Under 152.
The fact that pros kept hitting the under even though the line got worse signals supreme confidence in a lower-scoring game.
So far this season, when two conference teams go head-to-head and the total is 150 or higher and falls at least one point, the under has gone 59-30 (66.3%), +23.5 units, 26.4% ROI.
Long Beach State @ CS Fullerton
10 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 148 to 150)
Wiseguys are staying up late to sweat this Big West over/under.
The total opened at 148. Currently 56% of bets are going over, yet the total has risen two points up to 150. In a vacuum, relatively even betting such as this will typically force the oddsmakers to "juice up" the total a few cents, but is unlikely to drive such big line movement.
So what forced the total to rise?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we've tracked three separate steam moves on the over, with sharps hitting the Over 148 twice and then hammering the Over 149.5.
