NBA action returns tomorrow. But for one more day, it's all about college hoops. Since it's the only game in town, recreational bettors will continue to flood the market with square money, providing additional contrarian value and an increased edge to the wiseguys.
After analyzing Wednesday’s stacked 46-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with start times of 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Xavier @ Seton Hall
7 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Xavier (moved from +6.5 to +5)
Casual bettors rarely look at betting percentages, line movement, power rankings or historical data when making a pick. Instead, they focus almost exclusively on won-loss records. Always bet the team with the better record.
Not the sharps. They know it's never that easy.
Seton Hall (16-9) opened as a 6.5-point home favorite against visiting Xavier (13-13). Naturally, nearly 75% of bets are laying the points with the Pirates.
However, despite receiving such heavy public support, Seton Hall has fallen from -6.5 to -5. What caused the peculiar line movement? Follow the money.
Xavier is receiving only 28% of bets but 68% of dollars. This heavy smart money discrepancy signals that big wagers are grabbing the points, not laying them.
Creighton @ Depaul
9 p.m. ET | FSN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 153 to 149)
Sharps and squares are largely on the same page when it comes to this Big East over/under.
The total opened at 153. Currently, 66% of bets and 72% of dollars are taking the under, indicating heavy public and wiseguy support.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed pro bettors hammer the Under 152.5, triggering market-wide steam that dropped the total down to 149.
According to Bet Labs, this spot has been very profitable for the sharps over the years. When two teams that shoot at least 45% from the field face off, the under has hit at a 54.1% clip since 2005.
North Carolina @ Duke
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 167.5 to 165)
One of the greatest rivalries in sports returns tonight, with eighth-ranked North Carolina (20-5) traveling to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face top-ranked Duke (23-2).
As expected, this prime-time showdown is attracting massive action from both sharp and square bettors. When all is said and done, it could end up being the most heavily bet game of the college hoops season thus far.
Sharps have their sights set on this over/under.
As soon as the line opened, sharps immediately crushed the Under 167.5, triggering market-wide steam. Later on, wiseguys came back on the Under 165.5. This overload of smart money from respected players created big liability for the books, forcing them to drop the total all the way down to 163.
Since that time, we've seen some buyback on the over, causing the line to settle back to 165. Currently, just under 60% of bets are taking the under.
So far this season, if the total is 155 or higher and falls at least one point, the under has hit at a 73.2% clip (+28.19 units, 29.7% ROI).
