Collin Wilson, Mike Randle & Stuckey join forces with Jim Root, Ky McKeon & Matt Cox of Three Man Weave to deliver their College Basketball Six Pack of Picks via The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast for the Final Four.
The NCAA Tournament has been filled with unexpected upsets and Cinderella runs. Gonzaga and Baylor have continued their dominance, while No. 11 seed UCLA has gone from First Four to Final Four. Even though there are just two games on Saturday, our experts have found six betting angles with value.
They broke down each of their favorite bets on The Action Network Podcast.
Collin Wilson: Baylor vs. Houston Over 134
These are two teams that shoot an incredible amount of 3-pointers.
Both are in the top 55 in 3-point rate, and Baylor is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation.
I expect the Bears will push the pace to avoid getting set in a half-court offense against this Houston defense. Not only do I expect a ton of shots with a lot coming from deep, but these are two of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country as well.
I think there could be some quick second-chance points here, and I don't think they're going to have to use those 20 seconds right after they get the rebound. I would play over up until 140.
The pick: Houston-Baylor over 134 (up to 140).
Jim Root: Mark Vital under 12.5 points, rebounds and assists
I think this is a tough matchup for Mark Vital here.
Houston has a really vicious interior defense on the other side of the court. It works hard on the glass and collapses on all drives and dump-offs, and that's how Vital scores.
He also has really struggled with minutes and staying on the court lately, finding himself in foul trouble in three of the four NCAA Tournament games. That doesn't bode well against a Houston offense that is a downhill attacking team.
Then, just simply the rebounding factor. The Cougars will be all over him on the glass and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Vital is going to have issues trying to compete on the glass there.
Baylor will not be able to go with its Vital-at-center lineup, which really juices his rebound totals. The Bears are going to have to keep a true center on the court, which hurts him. Give me the Vital under.
The pick: Mark Vital under 12.5 points, rebounds and assists.
Ky McKeon: Jalen Suggs over 14.5 points
Jalen Suggs is a stud. Everyone should know the name of this freshman phenom out of Gonzaga by now.
Who is guarding him for UCLA? Tyger Campbell? At 5-foot-11? Not happening.
Suggs' usage has been high all NCAA Tournament long, ranging from 22-33% from the Round of 64 through the Elite Eight.
He scored 15 points or more in four of his last six and is 11-for-12 at the free-throw line in the tournament. I think he steps up here and gets Gonzaga to the title game.
The pick: Jalen Suggs over 14.5 points.
Mike Randle: Jules Bernard under 18.5 points, rebounds and assists
Jules Bernard is not the type of guy who is going to dribble penetrate. He relies on the short jumpers and 3-pointers.
His totals have been bolstered because of his ability to rebound, which I don't think happens in this game. You have guys like Nembhard, Ayayi and Suggs for Gonzaga who all rebound at a high rate. I think Bernard is going to struggle here.
The Gonzaga perimeter defense is pretty strong, too, and UCLA will have to go to Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Cody Riley — if he stays on the floor — for offense.
Tyger Campbell will get to the line, but I can't see Bernard doing much.
If you look at his average on the year, it's actually below 18.5. I think it's bolstered by his 17 points, six rebounds and two assists against Alabama. Unless Bernard gets hot, I don't see him hitting this.
The pick: Jules Bernard under 18.5 points, rebounds and assists.
Matt Cox: Johnny Juzang under 18.5
Unfortunately, I'm fading Johnny "The Heatwave" Juzang.
It's a scary proposition after his 28-point explosion to get to the Final Four. But if you watch that game closely, this wasn't some 3-point barrage. This was a dazzling display of tough shot-making against a shorter, undersized Eli Brooks.
I think the regression forces are strong against Juzang, especially after you factor in the fact that the Zags are going to have three long wings sliding on him. Jalen Suggs is a phenomenal defender, Corey Kispert has the length and Joel Ayayi has plus-positional size at 6-foot-5. Expect to see all three of those guys in some combination slide in on Juzang.
We saw against Alabama the round prior — a team that has a similar type of DNA with long wings who are perimeter defenders — Juzang struggled and shot 4-of-12 from inside the arc.
I think that is more of a true function of what Juzang will do from an efficiency perspective against Gonzaga. There are some concerns about usage because he's been taking a lot of shots.
If the volume is there, you have to be worried, but I do think Mick Cronin wants to play this game at a crawl and limit possessions to some degree. On top of that, I think he'll feature Cody Riley inside in hopes of getting Drew Timme in foul trouble given how dominant he's been.
All things considered, I think it's going to be tough to score, and the opportunities will shrink relative to what we've seen in the past.
The pick: Johnny Juzang under 18.5 points.
Stuckey: Cody Riley over 9.5 points
I'm going to build on something Matt said and go with Cody Riley over 9.5 points.
He's gone over this in eight of his past 12 games, and I think he can have some success against Timme in the post. The foul trouble is concerning, but it's the Final Four. Maybe the refs swallow their whistles a little more, and UCLA has to really keep him to have a chance.
It's not a game against Michigan in the 40s where you can just bring in Kenneth Nwuba and afford 10 minutes without his offense. So, I think Riley will be stretched and is going to be fed.
It's a great point Matt brings up with trying to get Timme in foul trouble by feeding Riley inside. I'm riding with the Riley over.
The pick: Cody Riley over 9.5 points.
