Colorado vs Miami Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -111 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
Colorado and Miami are both still looking for a marquee nonconference win before conference play begins in January. Miami picked up a solid win against Kansas State but was run out of the gym at Kentucky in its toughest test thus far. Colorado lost to in-state rival Colorado State, and thus the Buffaloes' best win to this point is 94th-rated Richmond on KenPom.
Both teams look like tournament-caliber teams thus far, but both could run into some trouble come March without a big win to bolster their resumés. That makes this game on Sunday at the Barclays Center a critical neutral-court matchup.
The Hurricanes may have been in the Final Four last year, but there are really troubling indicators across the board in their underlying profile that leave them vulnerable in this matchup.
Find my betting pick and college basketball betting guide for Colorado vs. Miami below.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado has only lost two games this season — one in overtime to Florida State and another in a tough, true road environment against a rival. Tad Boyle's squad has cooled off from 3 — at one point after three games they were making more than half of them — and there's still some regression coming for the Buffaloes offense from beyond the arc. They've shot six percent above expectation as a team this year.
Colorado's offense has been extremely efficient overall because of the emergence of KJ Simpson. He's drawing a ton of fouls, dishing out assists at a top-100 rate and making 45% of his 3s so far this year.
He's just 6-foot-2, but it's notable across the front line just how much bigger Colorado is overall. The Buffaloes have struggled to guard quick perimeter scorers like Isaiah Stevens from Colorado State, and Nijel Pack is sure to be the key matchup for the Buffs defensively in this game.
The biggest matchup problem for Miami in this game is their lack of size at the 2-5 positions, whereas the Buffs should be able to throw length at all those positions to try to bother the Miami ball movement. Colorado has done a solid job of guarding the perimeter this season, so we could see both offenses cool off a bit from the 3-point line overall.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami’s defense is all the way down to 90th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. That’s despite the fact that no one has made any 3s against them all year. The perimeter defense has allowed open 3s at a league-average rate this season, yet teams have only made 25.6% of 3s. There's plenty of 3-point regression coming for the Canes at both ends of the floor.
The offense finished the season last year as the sixth best in the country, and it's already fallen to 20th despite the elite offensive shooting splits. The Canes have made 42.5% of their 3s on offense, and ShotQuality has them projected around 36%. It's an above-average shooting group, but the offense lacks a dynamic driver and slasher like it had with Isaiah Wong last year.
Maximize your Colorado vs. Miami action with our FanDuel promo code.
There’s even more room for the defense to fall, and the lack of rim protection should allow Colorado to attack down hill and consistently get baskets. Miami likes to play extremely fast, but the Buffs have better transition defense numbers per ShotQuality as well. Kentucky showed just how vulnerable the Canes are in defensive transition when they destroyed them in Rupp Arena.
The only clear advantage for Miami in the matchup is that they can force turnovers against a Colorado offense that can have a bit of a turnover issue at times. If the Hurricanes get a lot more shots up, they can make up for the fact that they have by far the weakest of the four units in this matchup — their defense.
Colorado vs. Miami
Betting Pick & Prediction
A Sunday afternoon tipoff in a foreign gym can produce some wonky results and performances from college teams.
Miami and Colorado have shot the ball as well as any team in the country from beyond the arc, and this has inflated both offenses' efficiency metrics. The Buffaloes can throw length at Miami and slow down this otherwise elite Canes offense just enough to have the slight edge here through rim defense and rebounding.
Instead of playing Colorado, I prefer under 154.5 as these offenses finally cool off a bit.
