The Columbia Lions take on the Dartmouth Big Green in Hanover, NH. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Dartmouth is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 161 points.
Here are my Columbia vs. Dartmouth predictions and college basketball picks for February 14, 2025.
Columbia vs Dartmouth Prediction
My Pick: Columbia PK or Better
My Columbia vs Dartmouth best bet is on the Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Columbia vs Dartmouth Odds, Lines
| Columbia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 161 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| Dartmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 161 -110 / -110 | -125 |
- Columbia vs Dartmouth spread: Dartmouth -1.5
- Columbia vs Dartmouth over/under: 161 points
- Columbia vs Dartmouth moneyline: Dartmouth -125, Columbia +105
- Columbia vs Dartmouth best bet: Columbia PK or Better
My Columbia vs Dartmouth NCAAB Betting Preview
The Lions have been disappointing.
They ranked sixth nationally in minutes continuity entering the season, and they returned almost every meaningful piece from last season. This finely-tuned squad surged through the non-conference, winning 11 of 13 games.
They entered January as a dark horse to win the Ivy League with their experience and continuity, but they’ve fallen flat on their faces.
Columbia started 0-6 in conference play and lost do-it-all point guard Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa to injury in the process.
The Lions finally squeaked out a home win over Brown last Saturday but failed to cover the spread in the process (74-72 victory as 2.5-point favorites).
It was supposed to be Jim Engles’ year. Alas.
That said, I think it’s time to buy low on the Lions.
Conference opponents have shot a whopping 46% from 3, an absurd mark that’s tanked the first half of their conference season and is ripe for regression.
For what it’s worth, ShotQuality projects the Lions should be 4-3 in conference play based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, primarily because opponents should’ve been shooting closer to 36%.
To make matters worse, the Lions are 0-3 in Ivy League games decided by six points or less. The combination of awful shooting and close-game variance has been devastating, but it should eventually flip.
I’m buying the Lions and their looming positive regression in the second half of February and March.
Both variance monsters showed up in Dartmouth’s corner in the Big Green’s six-point road win over Columbia two weeks ago.
Dartmouth shot 16-for-24 (67%) from 3, while Columbia shot 7-for-26 (27%). The Big Green snuck out the win after surviving a late-game Lions surge, but that shooting variance is the only reason Dartmouth won.
The Lions do a few things well.
They’re the league’s best ball-handling team, ranking first in offensive turnover rate (14%, per KenPom). They have one of the league’s better defensive backcourts, leading the Ivy in steal rate (13%, per KenPom) while ranking second in points per game off turnovers (16).
They’re also a dangerous, up-tempo, dribble-handoff-based offense that ranks among the top three in the Ivy in paint points (37, per CBB Analytics) and fast-break points per game (12, per CBB Analytics).
Meanwhile, Dartmouth is a shaky ball-handling squad, has the league’s worst interior defense (38 paint points per game allowed, per CBB Analytics), and has arguably the league’s worst two-way rebounding team.
The Big Green run an up-tempo, pace-and-space, shoot-first-and-ask-questions-later small-ball offense, but their lack of size and athleticism leaves them vulnerable on the glass and when defending the interior.
Ultimately, Dartmouth wins games when it makes its 3s. The Big Green made their triples in the first head-to-head matchup with Columbia, but they lost in every other facet of the game.
Columbia scored 46 points in the paint, 10 on fast breaks, 17 on second chances and 17 off turnovers against Dartmouth, while the Big Green scored 26, 13, two and six, respectively. The Lions won the turnover battle by 12 and the offensive rebounding battle by 11.
Ultimately, they won the shot-volume battle by an absurd 25, amassing 77 field goal attempts while allowing 52.
Do you know how hard it is to lose a game in which you take 25 more shots? There's no way that happens again in the rematch.
The Lions destroyed the Big Green in the underlying box score but suffered one of the unluckiest results of the year. ShotQuality graded the game as an analytically-expected 24-point win for Columbia, based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.
With typical shooting splits, Columbia should win the rematch convincingly.
Yes, the Lions are likely still without De La Rosa. Still, they dominated the first head-to-head matchup without him, and I expect a similar effort and performance with a much different outcome.
Furthermore, it’s an excellent let-down, sell-high spot on a Big Green squad that’s won three of their past four purely on unsustainable shooting splits.
Aside from the Columbia game, Dartmouth also beat Brown and Harvard by shooting 20-for-43 (47%) from 3 across the two matchups.
If Dartmouth shoots 60% from 3 again, I’ll tip my cap and move on. But if the Big Green shoot even close to their season average (35%) while the Lions shoot closer to theirs (36%), Columbia will obliterate Dartmouth in the turnover, rebounding, shot volume and paint points battle.
General two-way shooting regression for the Big Green's offense and the Lions' defense points toward this exact outcome occurring on Friday.
Honestly, this is among my favorite bets of the year. Go Lions.
