The path to college basketball conference tournament title games is brutal, which makes it difficult to be crowned champion, but creates an opportunity for bettors.
In many conference tournaments, teams play multiple games in a row against increasingly difficult competition. The high-pressure matchups combined with increased player fatigue can lead to lower-scoring games.
Using the Bet Labs database, we find that the under has gone 1,929-1,780-53 (52.0%) in all conference tournament games since 2005. A majority of these games are played at a neutral site, but in small conference tournaments the higher seeds actually receive home-court advantage in the early rounds.
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By eliminating these games and focusing on just contests played on a neutral court, where less familiarity with the surroundings can promote a low-scoring environment, a $100 bettor would increase their profit from $1,511 to $3,274.
Conference Tournament Betting System Pick
If fatigue is a significant factor like we believe, then players should become more exhausted as a tournament proceeds. As you can see from the table below, betting the under becomes more profitable later in the tournament:
Most of the value betting the under in conference tournaments comes in the finals when players have logged the most minutes and the competition is the stiffest. Since 2005, the under is 200-146-12 (57.8%) in the finals of conference tournaments played on neutral courts.
The optimal strategy for betting the under in conference tournament finals is to target games the oddsmakers expect to be low scoring. In finals matchups with a total of 140 or less, the under has gone 143-84-8 (63%) since 2005.
This system has been profitable in 10 consecutive postseasons, which gives us confidence that this trend will continue to be profitable. Over the next week, 27 conferences will crown a champion creating opportunities for bettors to take advantage of this strategy.
Tuesday System Matches:
- Hofstra vs. Northeastern (7 p.m. ET) — Under 135.5
- Northern Kentucky vs. UIC (7 p.m. ET) — Under 128.5
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