Conference tournaments are underway and bettors are getting their first taste of March Madness. Looking at Thursday's slate, two games jumped out with interesting totals.
CS Northridge vs. CS Fullerton (3:00 p.m. ET) has an over/under of 153 points and Seton Hall vs. Marquette (9:30 p.m. ET) has a total of 151. My instinct was to bet the unders since it is easier for an under to hit in a game when more points are expected to be scored. But before placing a wager I wanted to determine if my hunch was correct.
Using Bet Labs, I found that unders in postseason conference games have gone 1,942-1,791-53 (52%) since 2005.
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Increased familiarity among teams in conference matchups tends to lead to lower-scoring outcomes as the data shows, but it’s not enough to make it profitable to wager on every under in conference tournaments.
Conference Tournament Over/Under Betting Pick
However, we are not interested in betting the under in all games, just those with high totals.
Since 2005 the under has gone 224-180-10 (55%) if the total is 150 or more points in conference tournament games.
We can improve this system further by targeting conference tournament games played on neutral courts. The unfamiliar surroundings, different sight lines and each team playing a road game promotes a low-scoring environment.
Since 2005, betting the under in high-total conference-tournament games that are played on a neutral court has gone 191-140-8 (58%). This betting strategy has been profitable in 11 of the past 16 postseasons and a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,769 following this system.
Thursday Matches:
- CS Northridge vs. CS Fullerton (3 p.m. ET) – Under 153
- Duke vs. NC State (3 p.m. ET) – Under 152.5
- Seton Hall vs. Marquette (9:30 p.m. ET) – Under 151
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