As we roll into Champ Week for college hoops, we continue our coverage with the Conference USA Tournament preview.
There's a change of scenery for the C-USA tourney this year after moving away from The Star in Frisco, Texas. Every game will still be on a neutral court, with the tournament moving to Huntsville, Alabama.
Regardless of where this is held, this has consistently been a tournament known for upsets. Over the last nine Conference USA tournaments, the regular season champion has only won the postseason title three times.
The opening round will begin on Tuesday, leading up to the title game on Saturday night on CBS Sports Network.
With no team in line to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, every school is fighting for the automatic bid.
Conference USA Tournament Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via DraftKings) |
| Louisiana Tech | +115 |
| Liberty | +450 |
| Western Kentucky | +475 |
| Sam Houston | +500 |
| UTEP | +1200 |
| Jacksonville State | +2500 |
| New Mexico State | +6500 |
| Middle Tennessee | +6500 |
| FIU | +15000 |
Conference USA Tournament Bracket
The Favorite: Louisiana Tech +115
It's not a surprise that Louisiana Tech enters this tournament with the lowest odds even as the No. 2 seed. The Bulldogs are the only Conference USA squad rated in the top 100 by both KenPom and Bart Torvik.
You only have to look at the two matchups with top-seeded Sam Houston State to see how highly the market respects this squad. Tech opened conference play as a 6.5-point favorite at SHSU before later closing at -9 at home against the Bearkats.
However, the Bulldogs did lose both of those matchups outright.
The losses not only caused them to miss out on the regular season crown, but they're also on the same side of the bracket as the third-best team in the league, Western Kentucky.
One key to backing Louisiana Tech is the fact that Bart Torvik rates the squad as the best road team in C-USA play by a wide margin. This is extremely important for a tournament that's played at a neutral site.
Ultimately, the two losses to SHSU keep me away from the Bulldogs as my favorite bet. If you would like to back the best team in the conference with plus money, though, this would be the play for you.
Best Bet: Sam Houston State +500
Yes, I know I touched on how the top seed typically doesn’t win this tournament.
However, I can’t turn down this price, especially with how the Bearkats have the easier path and how they stack up to Louisiana Tech metrically.
Outside of those top two teams, the next best is WKU, which is on Tech’s side of the bracket. The gap in quality makes it very difficult for me to make a case for any of the teams in the top half of the bracket to defeat Sam Houston.
I also love to back teams that are playing their best ball coming into the tournament, which applies to SHSU. Since the start of February, Bart Torvik has rated it as the best team in C-USA.
This is also the same squad that beat Louisiana Tech in both games in the regular season, so I have to take this price on a team I believe will make the championship game.
Favorite Betting Angle: Fade FIU & New Mexico State in Opening Games
Because of how strongly I feel about the top two teams, I don’t see a long shot bet that appeals to me.
However, I believe the profitable angle is betting against FIU and New Mexico State in their games.
Yes, there's a chance that Captain Obvious wrote that last statement — as those are two of the three worst teams — but this will be your last opportunity to do so. These schools combined to go 1-15 straight up and 4-12 against the spread on the road in league play.
For starters, you could argue that these are also the two worst squads away from home. According to Bart Torvik, FIU is last in C-USA play on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense and opponent 3-point percentage (47.5%).
On the flip side, you have a New Mexico State squad that's either last or second-worst offensively in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and PPP.
The Aggies drew WKU in the quarterfinal, and they were 9.5-point underdogs on the road in the last meeting (they lost by 14). With this moving to a neutral floor, I hope to get a similar or better number to play here.
As for the Panthers, they were short underdogs to Jacksonville State just four games ago at home, and they failed to cover. I like anything -5 or better in this matchup.
