Arizona vs Dayton: NCAA Tournament Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
I'll begin this college basketball betting preview by asking: What's happening in Salt Lake City?
If you watched any of the four games in this location, one thing was noticeable: Teams couldn't run in transition because the ball got stuck in the net for multiple seconds after some of the made shots.
Three of the four games in Salt Lake City went under the total — until Samford and Kansas broke the trend in the nightcap.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona started sluggishly against No. 15 Long Beach State, trailing midway through the first half. Then the Cats remembered why they're a two-seed. They crushed the Beach for the final 30 minutes, coming just shy of covering the spread.
The Cats' strong defense held firm, limiting the Beach to 0.82 PPP and 3-of-17 shooting from 3. That's three straight games in which Arizona has held its opponent to fewer than 70 points.
Beating Arizona won't come easy, with the 10th-best defense complimenting the ninth-best offense in the country, per KenPom. The Wildcats are one of the few truly balanced, elite teams.
Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell will guide Arizona wherever it'll go in the Big Dance. Love went 6-of-18 from the floor two days ago, but I'm more impressed by Boswell scoring 20 points with eight assists.
At times, the 18-year-old Boswell struggling has directly led to team-wide offensive issues. Boswell could lead Arizona to win the whole thing when he's confident, and his 20 points against Long Beach State is a promising start.
One thing to watch is Arizona's defense against Dayton's versatile, 3-point shooting attack. Coach Tommy Lloyd will put Oumar Ballo into drop coverage. That should open up the mid-range area for jumpers, as Ballo tries staying close enough to the rim while not getting beat on straight-line drives.
It also allows for shooting chances from Holmes on pick-and-pops. Ballo struggles defending the pick-and-roll roll man, allowing 1.28 PPP (per Synergy) in those spots.
Dayton could render Ballo ineffective in this matchup.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton looked dead in the water against Nevada, trailing by 17 points with about 10 minutes left. Then Dayton's defensive pressure intensified, leading to one of the biggest comebacks in NCAA Tournament history.
The Flyers became a force to be reckoned with when their secondary pieces hit shots from the outside. Dayton is America's third-best 3-point shooting team, and shots are there once DaRon Holmes II gets doubled inside.
Nobody can stop the All-American big man, so doubling him is essential.
It's such a gut punch to see 18 seconds drain from the shot clock, only for Dayton to drill a 3 right in your face. That could happen often since the Flyers play at one of the more deliberate tempos in college basketball.
Koby Brea and Nate Santos combine to form one of the best shooting duos in college hoops; Brea is connecting on 49% from 3 and Santos is hitting at 42%.
Plus, Brea is now starting in Javon Bennett's place, sliding Kobe Elvis to the starting point guard spot. Bennett suffered a hand injury late in the VCU game and played 18 total minutes against Nevada.
Turnovers haven't killed Dayton yet, though.
Dayton vs Arizona
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think the Flyers keep the Wildcats within reach. Arizona hasn't blown teams out all year. Let's remember, the Cats lost against Washington State (twice), Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford.
The common denominator? Arizona played a slower tempo against teams that didn't want a track meet.
It could be the same against Dayton.
