The Dayton Flyers take on the Saint Louis Billikens in St. Louis, Missouri. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Saint Louis is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 145 points.
Here are my Dayton vs. Saint Louis predictions and college basketball picks for January 31, 2025.
Dayton vs Saint Louis Prediction
My Pick: Over 145 or Better
My Dayton vs Saint Louis best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds, Spread, Pick
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Saint Louis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 145 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Dayton vs Saint Louis spread: Saint Louis -1.5
- Dayton vs Saint Louis over/under: 145 points
- Dayton vs Saint Louis moneyline: Saint Louis -125, Dayton +105
- Dayton vs Saint Louis best bet: Over 145 or Better
My Dayton vs Saint Louis College Basketball Betting Preview
After a slow start, Josh Schertz’s offense has started to come around.
The hub-and-spoke secondary-motion offense works through stud center Robbie Avila in handoff, cutting and rolling sets (either the hard or short roll).
It’s a beautiful and deadly offense when clicking, and the Billikens are leading the Atlantic 10 in 2-point shooting (65%), and they’d likely be more lethal with some positive 3-point shooting regression (30%).
That said, I’m worried about their ball-handling issues, especially against Dayton’s on-ball pressure.
Dayton is also a good roll- and cut-denial defense, although you can expose the Flyers by moving their big men around on dribble hand-off sets.
Ultimately, Saint Louis’ scheme is elite at generating high-quality rim-and-3 looks, and the Flyers rank seventh in the A-10 in rim-and-3 PPP allowed (1.06, per ShotQuality). So, I’m partial to thinking the Billikens will produce on that end.
I’m worried about the Billikens' defense. Their drop-coverage unit has been working as designed, removing the rim while denying catch-and-shoot opportunities.
But they’ve been getting super lucky on that end of the court. Opponents are shooting a wildly unsustainable 21% from 3. Once that regresses toward the norm, their defense could collapse.
Of similar importance, Saint Louis’ drop coverage will funnel on-ball dribble penetration, which is where Dayton’s Malachi Smith makes his money. The Flyers are an elite pick-and-roll offense with Smith leading the charge.
So, ultimately, I think both offenses can produce here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a high-scoring ballgame.
Dayton is 14-6 to the over this season, and the Billikens’ 4-15 over/under record has been fueled by unlucky shooting on offense and unlucky shooting by their opponents on defense.
