The Dayton Flyers take on the UConn Huskies as part of the Maui Invitational. Tip-off is set for 12 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
UConn is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -285. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Dayton vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for November 27, 2024.
Dayton vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: Dayton 1H +3.5
My Dayton vs UConn best bet is on the Flyers first-half spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs UConn Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 148 -110 / -110 | -298 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 148 -110 / -110 | +240 |
- Dayton vs UConn spread: UConn -7
- Dayton vs UConn over/under: 148 points
- Dayton vs UConn moneyline: UConn -298, Dayton +240
- Dayton vs UConn best bet: Dayton 1H +3.5
Spread
I'm passing on the full-game spread, but I'm banking on the Flyers keeping it close for 20 minutes.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Dayton 1H +3.5
Dayton vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
UConn looks bad.
The frontcourt rotations are iffy. Aidan Mahaney has been a disaster on both ends of the court. Hassan Diarra has a 30% turnover rate through six games.
Dan Hurley has a lot of work to do. I have no doubt he will adjust as the season progresses, and the Huskies have gotten unlucky in Maui, with Memphis and Colorado shooting a combined 22-for-38 (58%) from behind the arc.
But I’m unsure if Dayton is the best matchup for the Huskies to turn the tides.
The Flyers run a spread pick-and-roll offense, spearheaded by Malachi Smith's elite dribble penetration and table setting. Smith consistently records six assists per game.
UConn’s ball-screen defense looks shaky in the early going.
Last year, Hurley could run an impenetrable drop-coverage defense with Donovan Clingan roaming the paint. But Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. aren’t effective droppers, forcing Hurley to run more vulnerable on-the-level or blitz concepts.
Meanwhile, Mahaney can get consistently roasted in switches on the perimeter.
Memphis ripped UConn apart in ball screens, scoring a whopping 34 points on 22 sets (1.55 PPP). I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayton did something similar.
On the other end of the court, Dayton’s on-ball pressure could give Diarra and the turnover-prone Huskies some issues. Smith, Enoch Cheeks and Javon Bennett amassed 31 steals in their first six games, and don’t forget that St. John’s transfer Posh Alexander can be a perimeter pest.
Meanwhile, UConn turned the ball over 19 times against East Texas A&M.
The Flyers also have the returning production and continuity advantage, which is critical in early-season handicapping — they rank among the top 90 teams nationally in experience and minutes continuity.
But I’m not entirely sold on Dayton.
The Flyers haven’t been awesome defending secondary off-ball screening actions under Anthony Grant, as they tend to play more of a shell defense. UConn could beat them over the top.
Moreover, Dayton’s on-ball defense worked against North Carolina and Iowa State in the first half, but both opponents eventually “figured out” the pressure and worked around it. I think the Flyers’ questionable depth has something to do with that — they rank 212th nationally in bench minutes (31%).
The Huskies rank among the top 100 in bench minutes (35%), and that depth could be all the difference in the second half for two teams playing their third game in three days.
UConn has also done well against pressure on a per-possession basis (1.59 PPP), albeit in limited action. Hurley could make critical halftime adjustments to beat the press, allowing the Huskies to punish Grant’s half-court shell defense with perimeter off-ball screens as the Flyers' engines run out of gas.
But before those adjustments, I’ll bank on Dayton’s spread pick-and-roll offense and press-happy defense carrying it for 20 minutes against a UConn squad working through issues on the fly.
