Drake slapped down two wagers for the national championship game between UConn and San Diego State on Monday and ended the night $120,000 lighter.
Overall, the wagers were incredibly negative expected value.
Drake's 2023 NCAA Tournament Title Game Wagers
- UConn to win by 6-10 points (+334). $250,000 to win $835,000
- UConn to win by 11 or more points (+130). $100,000 to win $130,000
Effectively, the pop star was betting $250,000 at +294 odds that UConn would win by six, seven, eight, nine or 10 points.
These types of "band" markets are almost always negative expected value.
Over the last three college basketball seasons, about 23.7% of games finished with a 6-10 point margin. That's without accounting for a winner.
Based on the betting odds — and experts across the advanced metrics landscape — UConn was projected to win this game just under 80% of the time.
With that in mind, UConn winning by 6-10 points would occur about 18.7% of the time. (80% of 23.7.)
Meanwhile, Drake's odds at +294 imply a probability of 25.4%.
So, this wager lost 6.7% in expected value the second Drake hit submit. (25.4% minus 18.7%.)
A simple wager of $350,000 on the spread at UConn -7 or -7.5 wouldn't have been as sexy — but would have yielded him a profit of about $318,000.
Or, if you or your mathematic assessment found that UConn would win around 80% of the time, you'd be receiving a roughly 3.5% betting edge by betting UConn -330, the best market odds that were available on Sunday afternoon.
Generally speaking, it's not recommended to wager on parlays — bets that require two or more things to happen — for any game, let alone the national championship game, where the market is at full equilibrium.
Drake's wagers weren't conventional parlays — but they were parlays. Two independent things needed to happen at once in order for Drake to profit.
In the end, it's play money for him. Monopoly money. But, you the reader — your money isn't. Don't play alongside these -EV bets unless it's for your own personal entertainment — not as a profit-making proposition.
